Dundee vs Rangers Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Dundee 2-2 Rangers.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Dundee, 25% draw, 48% Rangers — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Rangers at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dundee vs Rangers
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. GoodmanG
- 7D. WrightD
- 4R. AstleyD
- 5O. BevanD
- 12I. SamuelsD
- 27J. BevanM
- 28C. JonesM
- 48E. HamiltonM
- 14A. ForrestM
- 11A. HayF
- 21B. FinkF
- 13K. O'HaraG
- 3I. OdutayoD
- 18C. ReillyF
- 6M. AkinmboniD
- 17Ž. BeširM
- 8R. FinniganM
- 2B. HallidayD
- 77Alfie HarrisonM
- 26J. WrightD
- 1I. PandurG
- 21D. SterlingD
- 37E. FernandezD
- 24O. MakhanyaD
- 29J. PenriceD
- 6D. NeilM
- 43N. RaskinM
- 26B. BouananiM
- 10Minsu KimM
- 23D. GassamaM
- 20R. NaderiF
- 22V. DragojevićM
- 4B. GodfreyD
- 31L. KellyG
- 19K. KelsyF
- 28B. MiovskiF
- 18K. NedeljkovićD
- 25T. RommensD
- 42T. ChukwuaniM
- 52Findlay CurtisF
Form going into Dundee vs Rangers
Dundee
Premiership
- W2-1away to Falkirk10 October 2026
Rangers
Premiership
- W3-1Kilmarnock10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dundee | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 17 |
| 2 | Rangers | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundee vs Rangers
- 25 January 2026Rangers 3–0 DundeePremiership
- 9 November 2025Dundee 0–3 RangersPremiership
- 9 August 2025Rangers 1–1 DundeePremiership
- 29 March 2025Dundee 3–4 RangersPremiership
- 9 January 2025Dundee 1–1 RangersPremiership
- 21 December 2024Rangers 1–0 DundeePremiership
Leading scorers: Dundee and Rangers
Dundee
GoalsAssists
- B. Fink40
- J. Westley40
Rangers
GoalsAssists
- R. Naderi63
- K. Kelsy40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dundee and Rangers drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Rangers at 48% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Bradley·Fink 37' for Dundee, Badredine Bouanani 42' for Rangers, Nicolas Raskin 60' for Rangers, Callum Jones 69' for Dundee. On expected goals it finished 1.81–1.82.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dundee a 38.5% chance to finish in the top four: 47.1% after a win, 37.9% after a draw, 33.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 37.9%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.
For Rangers the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 22.2% going in: 25.7% after a win, 20.2% after a draw, 17.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 20.2%, 2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Dundee v Rangers has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 28% / 27% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 27% / 25% / 48%: the biggest move is Rangers's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Dundee win27%▼ −1
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Rangers win48%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.