St Johnstone vs Dundee United Premiership prediction & result
Final score: St Johnstone 1-1 Dundee United.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% St Johnstone, 27% draw, 27% Dundee United — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
St Johnstone at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St Johnstone vs Dundee United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. StewardG
- 33L. SmithD
- 19D. FinlaysonD
- 3C. DiabateD
- 2E. AlıçD
- 42R. McAlearM
- 8J. HoltM
- 11S. StantonM
- 30J. CotterillM
- 7T. StevenM
- 9J. FowlerF
- 32J. CampbellM
- 23L. ChalmersM
- 18K. FotheringhamF
- 14M. FouldsD
- 10J. GullanF
- 6B. MikulićD
- 99R. PatonF
- 20R. SinclairG
- 26M. ToddM
- 1J. WaltonG
- 23J. RawlinsD
- 3B. EsselinkD
- 18M. ForbesD
- 19K. CiubotaruD
- 10D. TaitM
- 16L. CameronM
- 14Zidane IqbalM
- 21J. RandallF
- 93I. MetsokoF
- 77D. BennieF
- 30J. AmissahG
- 8Panutche CamaráM
- 20N. FarrugiaF
- 6R. GrahamD
- 4I. IovuD
- 22D. NaamoD
- 15L. RoseF
- 9Z. SapsfordM
- 26Abdoulaye YoroM
Form going into St Johnstone vs Dundee United
St Johnstone
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Aberdeen11 October 2026
- D1-1Falkirk19 September 2026
- L0-1Celtic9 September 2026
- W2-1Hibernian6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee2 September 2026
Dundee United
Premiership
- W1-0Hibernian10 October 2026
What these results say
- St Johnstone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for St Johnstone had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | St Johnstone | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 17 |
| 6 | Dundee United | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St Johnstone vs Dundee United
- 12 April 2025Dundee United 1–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 26 December 2024St Johnstone 1–2 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 24 August 2024Dundee United 2–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 6 May 2023St Johnstone 1–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 18 February 2023Dundee United 1–2 St JohnstonePremiership
- 2 January 2023St Johnstone 0–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
Leading scorers: St Johnstone and Dundee United
St Johnstone
GoalsAssists
- J. Fowler61
Dundee United
GoalsAssists
- J. Randall33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St Johnstone and Dundee United drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for St Johnstone at 46% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Josh Fowler 21' for St Johnstone, Lyall Cameron 79' for Dundee United. On expected goals it finished 1.36–1.17.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave St Johnstone these chances to finish in the top four: 25.6% after a win, 18.4% after a draw, 15.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 18.4%.
For Dundee United the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three: 19.5% after a win, 26.5% after a draw, 29.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 26.5%.
Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on St Johnstone v Dundee United has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is St Johnstone's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- St Johnstone win46%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Dundee United win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.