17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Hibernian vs Falkirk Premiership prediction & result

Easter Road, Edinburgh
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Hibernian 1-2 Falkirk.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Hibernian, 26% draw, 26% Falkirk — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hibernian at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hibernian0%Draw5%Falkirk95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Owen Elding
6'
13'
⚽Jacob Murrellassist: Ryan Strain
25'
Ben krauhaus
37'
⚽Jacob Murrellassist: Ethan Ross
⚽Owen Eldingassist: Felix Passlack
41'
45'
🔁Scott Tanserout: Leon McCann
•Thibault Klidjé
54'
🔁Thibault Klidjéout: Rabbi Matondo
60'
🔁Azeem Abdulaiout: Jamie McGrath
61'
61'
Ryan Strain
65'
🔁Ben krauhausout: Deniss Meļņiks
🔁A. Majorout: Ante Suto
76'
🔁Miguel Changa Chaiwaout: Nicky Cadden
76'
77'
🔁Ethan Rossout: Calvin Fodrey
79'
Finley Frank Barbrook
84'
🔁Finley Frank Barbrookout: Finn Yeats
84'
🔁Owen Eamesout: Jack McMillan

Match stats — Hibernian vs Falkirk

70%Possession30%
17Shots10
3On target5
6Corners3
1.42xG0.82

Goals against chances

Hibernian1 from 1.42 xGabout what the chances were worth
Falkirk2 from 0.82 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hibernian 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. SallingerG
  • 25F. PasslackD
  • 6J. KerrD
  • 5M. IvezićD
  • 3A. MayorD
  • 8J. MulliganM
  • 14M. ChaiwaM
  • 10M. BoyleM
  • 47A. AbdulaiM
  • 18T. KlidjeM
  • 7O. EldingF
Substitutes
  • 4G. HanleyD
  • 19N. CaddenM
  • 15J. IredaleD
  • 39R. MatondoM
  • 17J. McGrathM
  • 11J. NewellM
  • 35F. OwensG
  • 12Alex WilliamsD
  • 22A. ŠutoF
Coach: M. Reedijk
Falkirk 4-2-3-1
  • 19S. BainG
  • 22R. StrainD
  • 15L. NeilsonD
  • 5L. HendersonD
  • 17S. TanserD
  • 8B. SpencerM
  • 16Finley Frank BarbrookM
  • 23E. RossM
  • 28B. KrauhausM
  • 42Owen EamesM
  • 24J. MurrellF
Substitutes
  • 99C. FodreyM
  • 1N. HogarthG
  • 9R. MacIverF
  • 3L. McCannD
  • 4J. McMillanD
  • 21D. MeļņiksM
  • 7Ben ParkinsonF
  • 14F. YeatsM
  • 27C. McLeodM
Coach: J. McGlynn

Form going into Hibernian vs Falkirk

Hibernian

Premiership

  • L0-1away to Dundee United10 October 2026

Falkirk

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Dundee10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to St Johnstone19 September 2026
  • W2-1Heart of Midlothian15 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Dundee United5 September 2026
  • L1-2Rangers2 September 2026

What these results say

  • Falkirk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Falkirk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Falkirk.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Hibernian123271517-211
3Falkirk136342014+621

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Falkirk

  • 9 May 2026Falkirk 1–3 HibernianPremiership
  • 24 January 2026Falkirk 4–1 HibernianPremiership
  • 6 December 2025Hibernian 3–0 FalkirkPremiership
  • 23 September 2025Falkirk 2–2 HibernianPremiership
  • 12 July 2022Falkirk 1–0 HibernianLeague Cup
  • 25 March 2017Hibernian 2–1 FalkirkChampionship

Leading scorers: Hibernian and Falkirk

Hibernian

GoalsAssists

  • C. Wright31

Falkirk

GoalsAssists

  • J. Murrell70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Falkirk won 2–1 at Hibernian. The model had leaned towards a win for Hibernian at 48% and given a win for Falkirk 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jacob Murrell 13' for Falkirk, Jacob Murrell 37' for Falkirk, Owen Elding 41' for Hibernian. On expected goals it finished 1.42–0.82.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hibernian a 25.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 20.9% after a win, 26.8% after a draw, 32.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.6%, 7.1 points higher than before the match.

For Falkirk the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 43.5% going in: 34.2% after a win, 42.1% after a draw, 48.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.2%, 9.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hibernian v Falkirk has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is Hibernian's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Hibernian win48%▲ +4
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Falkirk win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.