31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla Premier League prediction & result

Full time0 – 1

Final score: Abu Qair Semad 0-1 Ghazl El Mehalla.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Abu Qair Semad, 33% draw, 36% Ghazl El Mehalla — fair odds of 3.23, 3.03 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ghazl El Mehalla at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Abu Qair Semad0%Draw3%Ghazl El Mehalla97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Mohamed Salem Ekbad
Youssef Hamdi
34'
45'
🔁Ahmed Yasserout: Rached Arfaoui
52'
Mory Touré
55'
🔁Mory Touréout: Moaz Abdel Salam
🔁Ahmed Khaledout: Mohamed Magdy
58'
64'
🔁Mohamed Salem Ekbadout: Abdel Kader Yehia
65'
Ahmed Etman
Omar Ibrahim
67'
🔁Omar Ibrahimout: Quaison Kofi Gideon
78'
84'
🔁Abdel Rahman Osamaout: Abdel Rahman Emad
84'
🔁Amr Gomaaout: Hazem Mohamed Mohamed Hosny Ismail
🔁Youssef Hamdiout: Mohamed Ashraf
87'
🔁Mostafa Abdelrehimout: Mahmoud Abou-Gouda
87'

Match stats — Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla

58%Possession42%
16Shots10
3On target4
10Corners0
1.74xG0.83

Goals against chances

Abu Qair Semad0 from 1.74 xGless than the chances were worth
Ghazl El Mehalla1 from 0.83 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Abu Qair Semad 4-5-1
  • 1M. GeneshG
  • 6M. AlaaD
  • 20Ahmed AwadD
  • 4M. DabashD
  • 27Ahmed DaheshD
  • 11Mostafa RahimM
  • 14R. MiladM
  • 30Y. HamdiM
  • 15O. IbrahimM
  • 22Ahmed KhaledM
  • 29Ali HusseinF
Substitutes
  • 13Glid OtangaM
  • 7Mohamed AshrafM
  • 9Mahmoud Abou GoudaF
  • 12I. AshrafD
  • 24A. El GazarD
  • 5Ahmed FayezD
  • 26Quaison Kofi GideonM
  • 10Mohamed MagdyF
  • 25Mohamed Zakaria ShikaG
Coach: Magdy Abdelaaty
Ghazl El Mehalla 4-2-3-1
  • 25Mohamed KokoG
  • 23F. Nechat DjabriD
  • 3Ahmed El AashD
  • 5Abdel Fattah ShetaD
  • 12Yehia ZakariaD
  • 20M. TouréM
  • 17Abdel Rahman OsamaM
  • 22Ahmed EtmanM
  • 44A. YasserM
  • 30Amr GomaaM
  • 11Mohamed Salem EkbadF
Substitutes
  • 9R. ArfaouiF
  • 99Hazem MohamedF
  • 14Abdel Rahman EmadM
  • 7Mohamed AshrafF
  • 15Ahmed GamalD
  • 1A. El NafarawyG
  • 4Ahmed ShoushaD
  • 8Moaz Abdel SalamM
  • 63Abdel Kader YehiaF
Coach: Khaled Galal

Form going into Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla

Abu Qair Semad

Premier League

  • D1-1away to Al Masry19 October 2026
  • L1-2Asyut Petrol13 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Al Ahly15 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Zamalek SC8 September 2026

Ghazl El Mehalla

Premier League

  • W2-1Al Ittihad Alexandria21 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Smouha SC12 October 2026
  • L0-1Zamalek SC16 September 2026
  • L1-3away to National Bank of Egypt7 September 2026

What these results say

  • Abu Qair Semad did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Abu Qair Semad conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Abu Qair Semad had two goals or fewer.
  • Ghazl El Mehalla conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Ghazl El Mehalla failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Egypt Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Abu Qair Semad8116312-94
17Ghazl El Mehalla8215411-77

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Abu Qair Semad vs Ghazl El Mehalla

  • 8 October 2026Ghazl El Mehalla 1–1 Abu Qair SemadLeague Cup
  • 8 October 2023Ghazl El Mehalla 2–0 Abu Qair SemadSecond League

The result against the call

Ghazl El Mehalla won 1–0 at Abu Qair Semad. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Ghazl El Mehalla at 36%. The goal: Mohamed Salem Ekbad 13' for Ghazl El Mehalla. On expected goals it finished 1.74–0.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Abu Qair Semad a 57.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 42.1% after a win, 59.3% after a draw, 66.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.9%, 9.8 points higher than before the match.

For Ghazl El Mehalla the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 40.1% going in: 26.4% after a win, 42.9% after a draw, 53.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.4%, 13.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.