Petrojet vs Smouha SC Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Petrojet 1-1 Smouha SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Petrojet, 32% draw, 35% Smouha SC — fair odds of 3.03, 3.13 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Smouha SC at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Petrojet vs Smouha SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Omar SalahG
- 4Mahmoud Shedid KenawiD
- 25Barakat HaggagD
- 40Youssef Abdel-TawabD
- 3Islam AbdallahD
- 11Mohamed Ibrahim DodoM
- 17Adham HamedM
- 12A. HamawyM
- 21A. LiadiM
- 66Gamal FawziF
- 15Ahmed BahbahF
- 8Mohamed OsmanM
- 22Omar DiyaaF
- 19Mostafa El BadryM
- 7Karim El DeebD
- 13F. M. KouablanF
- 9Badr MoussaF
- 30G. OkwaraF
- 16Abdel Kafi RagabG
- 29Ahmed YassinD
- 28Ahmed MayhoubG
- 30Ali GamalD
- 24Mohamed RagabD
- 3Mohamed DesoukiD
- 21Abdel Ghani MohamedD
- 15S. AttidjikouM
- 10Khaled El GhandourM
- 14Mohamed SaeedM
- 66K. MohamedM
- 8Samir FekriM
- 20P. BadjiF
- 1Hussein TaimourG
- 2Hesham HafezM
- 23Fady FaridF
- 19Mohamed AdelM
- 17Ahmed El NadryF
- 88Ahmed SalehF
- 11Mohamed FaroukF
- 22Mohamed Abdel SamiaeM
- 4Ahmed Abdel RasoulD
Form going into Petrojet vs Smouha SC
Petrojet
Premier League
- L0-2away to Ceramica Cleopatra21 October 2026
- D2-2Wadi Degla13 October 2026
- W2-1away to El Gouna FC16 September 2026
- W2-1Al Masry7 September 2026
Smouha SC
Premier League
- W2-0away to El Gouna FC19 October 2026
- W1-0Ghazl El Mehalla12 October 2026
- W1-0away to El Geish14 September 2026
- L0-2Ceramica Cleopatra8 September 2026
What these results say
- Petrojet conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Petrojet scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Petrojet had three goals or more.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Smouha SC had two goals or fewer.
- Smouha SC won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Smouha SC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Egypt Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Petrojet | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Smouha SC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Petrojet vs Smouha SC
- 31 August 2025Smouha SC 0–0 PetrojetPremier League
- 18 March 2025Smouha SC 1–2 PetrojetLeague Cup
- 11 February 2025Petrojet 0–1 Smouha SCPremier League
- 21 May 2019Smouha SC 2–0 PetrojetPremier League
- 26 November 2018Petrojet 1–0 Smouha SCPremier League
- 2 February 2018Petrojet 2–1 Smouha SCPremier League
Leading scorers: Petrojet and Smouha SC
Petrojet
GoalsAssists
- Ahmed Bahbah31
- Mostafa El Badry31
Smouha SC
GoalsAssists
- P. Badji21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Petrojet and Smouha SC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Smouha SC at 35% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Godwin Chika Okwara 82' for Petrojet, Mohamed Desouki 90+6' for Smouha SC. On expected goals it finished 0.55–1.77.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Petrojet a 12.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.5% after a win, 12.7% after a draw, 17.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 12.7%.
For Smouha SC the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 21.2% going in: 29.8% after a win, 17.9% after a draw, 13.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.9%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Petrojet v Smouha SC has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 39% / 31% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 33% / 32% / 35%: the biggest move is Petrojet's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Petrojet win33%▼ −6
- Draw32%▲ +1
- Smouha SC win35%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.