18 October 2026, 00:00 UTC

Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama Serie A prediction & result

Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo
Referee: Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Sao Paulo 1-0 Vasco da Gama.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Sao Paulo, 29% draw, 29% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sao Paulo at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sao Paulo97%Draw3%Vasco da Gama0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Artur Victor Guimarães
42'
44'
Facundo Colidio
45'
🔁Paulo Henriqueout: Jose Luis Rodriguez
🔁Lucianoout: Lucas Moura
45'
🔁Rafael Tolóiout: Jose Monteiro
45'
51'
•Gabriel Pereira
54'
Gabriel Pereira
62'
🔁Bruno Duarte Da Silvaout: Brenner
⚽Artur Victor Guimarãesassist: Pedro Lima
68'
🔁Marcos Antonioout: Pablo Maia
71'
74'
🔁Tchê Tchêout: Thiago Mendes
74'
🔁Santiago Sosaout: Jair
🔁Jonathan Calleriout: Gustavo Santana
80'
🔁Artur Victor Guimarãesout: Luis Osorio Messias De Oliveira
89'
89'
🔁Alan Lescanoout: Adson
Iago Amaral Borduchi
90+2'

Match stats — Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama

40%Possession60%
9Shots13
2On target2
3Corners4
1.26xG0.92

Goals against chances

Sao Paulo1 from 1.26 xGabout what the chances were worth
Vasco da Gama0 from 0.92 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sao Paulo 3-4-2-1
  • 23RafaelG
  • 28NewtonD
  • 5R. ArboledaD
  • 2R. TolóiD
  • 32Pedro LimaM
  • 8Marcos AntônioM
  • 16D. BobadillaM
  • 12IagoM
  • 10LucianoM
  • 37ArturM
  • 9J. CalleriF
Substitutes
  • 18WendellD
  • 27Victor SáF
  • 43G. SantanaF
  • 35SabinoD
  • 49Ryan FranciscoF
  • 46Pedro FerreiraM
  • 29Pablo MaiaM
  • 54Osorio LuisD
  • 45Lucca Marques AlencarF
Coach: Dorival Júnior
Vasco da Gama 4-2-3-1
  • 1Léo JardimG
  • 96Paulo HenriqueD
  • 55Gabriel PereiraD
  • 30Robert RenanD
  • 66CuiabanoD
  • 3Tchê TchêM
  • 5S. SosaM
  • 11A. GómezM
  • 22A. LescanoM
  • 9F. ColidioM
  • 19Bruno DuarteF
Substitutes
  • 45Loide AugustoF
  • 23Thiago MendesM
  • 20BrennerF
  • 13Daniel FuzatoG
  • 7DavidF
  • 8JairM
  • 43Lucas FreitasD
  • 6Lucas PitonD
  • 83Ramon RiqueM
Coach: Pedro Emanuel

Form going into Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama

Sao Paulo

Serie A

  • W2-1Vitoria11 October 2026

Vasco da Gama

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Boca Juniors14 October 2026
  • D0-0Remo10 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Botafogo7 October 2026
  • W5-0Coritiba19 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Gremio12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Vasco da Gama went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Vasco da Gama won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vasco da Gama scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Sao Paulo34128143939044
11Vasco da Gama34128144550-544

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama

  • 18 April 2026Vasco da Gama 2–1 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 2 November 2025Vasco da Gama 0–2 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 13 June 2025Sao Paulo 1–3 Vasco da GamaSerie A
  • 17 October 2024Sao Paulo 3–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
  • 23 June 2024Vasco da Gama 4–1 Sao PauloSerie A
  • 7 October 2023Vasco da Gama 0–0 Sao PauloSerie A

The full Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama record →

Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Vasco da Gama

Sao Paulo

GoalsAssists

  • J. Calleri102
  • Luciano91

Vasco da Gama

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 45 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sao Paulo beat Vasco da Gama 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Sao Paulo at 42%. The goal: Artur Victor Guimarães 68' for Sao Paulo. On expected goals it finished 1.26–0.92.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vasco da Gama these chances to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 2.9% after a draw, 4.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 4.6%.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.