Crystal Palace vs 1899 Hoffenheim UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Crystal Palace 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Crystal Palace, 27% draw, 29% 1899 Hoffenheim — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Crystal Palace at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Crystal Palace vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. HendersonG
- 6J. CanvotD
- 26C. RichardsD
- 21H. AhanorD
- 25A. KhalailiM
- 20A. WhartonM
- 23Q. TimberM
- 3T. MitchellM
- 18D. KamadaF
- 14J. MatetaF
- 10Yeremy PinoF
- 81Lucca BenettonG
- 44W. BenítezG
- 22J. Strand LarsenF
- 11D. McNeilF
- 30Óscar MinguezaD
- 9E. NketiahF
- 24D. OsorioM
- 43S. WilliamsM
- 65Nathanael James KalemboM
- 1O. BaumannG
- 29Natnael AbrahaD
- 5O. KabakD
- 28K. MachidaD
- 39M. RotsD
- 27A. KramarićM
- 18W. BurgerM
- 7L. AvdullahuM
- 22A. PrassM
- 11F. AsllaniF
- 19T. LemperleF
- 13BernardoD
- 49L. WagenbachF
- 37L. PhilippG
- 36L. PeterssonG
- 32Cajetan Benjamin LenzM
- 47V. LässigD
- 46J. FieldsF
- 4Sean DulicD
- 14A. DaghimF
Form going into Crystal Palace vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Crystal Palace
UEFA Europa League
- D2-2away to Beşiktaş22 October 2026
- L2-3away to Lyon15 October 2026
- W4-0Lech Poznan17 September 2026
1899 Hoffenheim
UEFA Europa League
- W3-0Lyon22 October 2026
- L2-3Beşiktaş15 October 2026
- L0-2away to OFI17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 5 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Crystal Palace and 1899 Hoffenheim
Crystal Palace
GoalsAssists
- Yeremy Pino30
1899 Hoffenheim
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Crystal Palace and 1899 Hoffenheim drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Crystal Palace at 44% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Alexander Prass 7' for 1899 Hoffenheim, Daichi Kamada 90+1' for Crystal Palace. Sent off: Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace) 77'. On expected goals it finished 1.10–1.27.
How the call on Crystal Palace v 1899 Hoffenheim has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 42% / 25% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 27% / 29%: the biggest move is 1899 Hoffenheim's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Crystal Palace win44%▲ +2
- Draw27%▲ +2
- 1899 Hoffenheim win29%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.