AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Juventus.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% AZ Alkmaar, 28% draw, 46% Juventus — fair odds of 3.85, 3.57 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Juventus at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28J. De BusserG
- 30D. KasiusD
- 3W. GoesD
- 4L. SchoutenD
- 34M. de WitD
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 17V. ByskovM
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 14C. StengsF
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 11R. DaalF
- 8J. ClasieM
- 5M. ChávezD
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 29W. HoedtD
- 31R. IchiharaD
- 18B. KovacsF
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 24A. OufkirF
- 1R. Owusu-OduroG
- 25G. VicarioG
- 4F. GattiD
- 26J. LucumíD
- 6L. KellyD
- 15P. KaluluM
- 29P. SarrM
- 8T. KoopmeinersM
- 20A. CambiasoM
- 9R. Kolo MuaniM
- 17Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićM
- 27N. WoltemadeF
- 13J. BogaF
- 3BremerD
- 32J. CabalD
- 12Douglas LuizM
- 18J. EkhatorF
- 48D. ElimoghaleF
- 51A. MerolaF
- 33NetoG
- 41A. OwusuM
Form going into AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus
AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa League
- W4-0away to Ararat-Armenia22 October 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Beer Sheva15 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sunderland16 September 2026
Juventus
UEFA Europa League
- D2-2Rennes22 October 2026
- W2-1away to Celta Vigo15 October 2026
- W5-0NEC Nijmegen17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: AZ Alkmaar and Juventus
AZ Alkmaar
GoalsAssists
- M. Meerdink30
Juventus
GoalsAssists
- R. Kolo Muani32
- N. Woltemade32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Juventus won 2–1 at AZ Alkmaar. The model had made a win for Juventus its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Teun Koopmeiners 19' for Juventus, Randal Kolo Muani 37' for Juventus, Mexx Meerdink 88' for AZ Alkmaar. On expected goals it finished 2.18–0.63.
How the call on AZ Alkmaar v Juventus has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 26% / 28% / 46%: the biggest move is Juventus's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- AZ Alkmaar win26%▼ −7
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Juventus win46%▲ +8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.