Olimpia vs Deportivo Recoleta Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Olimpia 4-1 Deportivo Recoleta.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Olimpia, 20% draw, 13% Deportivo Recoleta — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Olimpia at 67%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Olimpia vs Deportivo Recoleta
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. OlveiraG
- 4T. PayneD
- 14G. VargasD
- 15M. GamarraD
- 23E. MatusD
- 6R. OrtizM
- 7F. CardozoM
- 26R. SánchezM
- 20E. DelmásM
- 37R. BenitezM
- 9G. ÁvalosF
- 2B. BentaberryD
- 35F. AlfonsoF
- 27R. CáceresD
- 11S. FerreiraF
- 8A. FrancoM
- 10D. GonzálezF
- 29I. LeguizamónM
- 12S. LentinellyG
- 18S. QuintanaM
- 13O. ToledoG
- 14C. FigueredoD
- 5N. MarottaD
- 32L. MonzónD
- 18P. RiosD
- 36B. FerreiraM
- 21C. GarayM
- 38J. FrancoM
- 17W. BáezM
- 25Renzo José Martino CampuzanoF
- 33A. GonzálezF
- 20M. CañeteM
- 30P. CharpentierF
- 7R. DomínguezM
- 12N. FerreiraG
- 8F. GaleanoM
- 34Mathías Nicolás Masi PuschkarevichM
- 4M. PereiraD
- 31M. ShuppM
- 10A. SilvaM
Form going into Olimpia vs Deportivo Recoleta
Olimpia
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W2-0away to Cerro Porteno1 November 2026
- W3-2away to Sportivo Ameliano25 October 2026
- W3-02 de Mayo17 October 2026
Deportivo Recoleta
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W3-0Sportivo Ameliano31 October 2026
- D1-1away to 2 de Mayo24 October 2026
- W1-0Rubio NU16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 14 | +23 | 42 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Olimpia vs Deportivo Recoleta
- 29 August 2026Deportivo Recoleta 1–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 15 May 2026Olimpia 3–2 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 14 March 2026Deportivo Recoleta 0–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 10 October 2025Deportivo Recoleta 1–0 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 30 July 2025Olimpia 1–0 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 1 June 2025Olimpia 0–0 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Olimpia and Deportivo Recoleta
Olimpia
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos83
- A. Alcaraz71
- R. Benitez43
Deportivo Recoleta
GoalsAssists
- A. Wlk131
- A. González51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Olimpia beat Deportivo Recoleta 4–1. The model had made a win for Olimpia its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Gabriel Ávalos 5' for Olimpia, Gabriel Ávalos 10' for Olimpia, Gabriel Ávalos 15' for Olimpia, Bernardo Romeo Benitez Farina 40' for Olimpia, Aldo Walmor González Román 67' for Deportivo Recoleta. On expected goals it finished 1.30–0.71.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Olimpia a 94.0% chance to win the league: 97.0% after a win, 88.7% after a draw, 82.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 97.0%, 3 points higher than before the match.
For Deportivo Recoleta the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 75.7% going in: 52.2% after a win, 69.0% after a draw, 80.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.4%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Olimpia v Deportivo Recoleta has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 69% / 19% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 67% / 20% / 13%: the biggest move is Olimpia's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Olimpia win67%▼ −2
- Draw20%▲ +1
- Deportivo Recoleta win13%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.