Benfica vs Lech Poznan UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Benfica 3-1 Lech Poznan.
Before kick-off the model made it 72% Benfica, 17% draw, 11% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 1.39, 5.88 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Benfica at 72%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Benfica vs Lech Poznan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. TrubinG
- 58Daniel BanjaquiD
- 3A. CircatiD
- 44Tomás AraújoD
- 34S. El KarouaniD
- 10H. SudakovM
- 16ManuM
- 27RafaM
- 30C. EcheverriM
- 21A. SchjelderupM
- 22J. DuránF
- 8F. AursnesM
- 72A. CabralF
- 6A. BahD
- 5E. BarrenecheaM
- 26S. DahlD
- 33Gabriel IndioD
- 13J. KamińskiF
- 11D. LukebakioF
- 36João PalhinhaM
- 1M. LisG
- 2Joel PereiraD
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 59T. YegbeD
- 15M. GurgulD
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 43A. KozubalM
- 10P. WålemarkM
- 21Pablo RodríguezM
- 11D. HåkansM
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 56W. SzymczakF
- 33M. PruchniewskiG
- 77L. PalmaM
- 31Wiktor ObremskiG
- 90H. JanyszkaD
- 24F. JagiełłoM
- 20R. GumnyD
- 5G. BerggrenM
- 14L. BengtssonM
Form going into Benfica vs Lech Poznan
Benfica
UEFA Europa League
- W4-1away to Omonia Nicosia22 October 2026
- W4-1Celtic15 October 2026
- W2-0away to AC Milan16 September 2026
Lech Poznan
UEFA Europa League
- D1-1Sunderland22 October 2026
- L0-4Bayer Leverkusen15 October 2026
- L0-4away to Crystal Palace17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 12 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Benfica vs Lech Poznan
- 3 December 2020Benfica 4–0 Lech PoznanUEFA Europa League
- 22 October 2020Lech Poznan 2–4 BenficaUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Benfica and Lech Poznan
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- G. Prestianni22
Lech Poznan
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Benfica beat Lech Poznan 3–1. The model had made a win for Benfica its most likely outcome, at 72%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Rafa Silva 6' for Benfica, Gianluca Prestianni 67' for Benfica, Leo Bengtsson 72' for Lech Poznan, Heorhii Sudakov 90' for Benfica. On expected goals it finished 2.16–0.50.
How the call on Benfica v Lech Poznan has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 63% / 20% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 72% / 17% / 11%: the biggest move is Benfica's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Benfica win72%▲ +9
- Draw17%▼ −3
- Lech Poznan win11%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.