Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 Marseille.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Bayer Leverkusen, 25% draw, 21% Marseille — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Bayer Leverkusen at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 4J. QuansahD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 8R. AndrichM
- 17Lucas VázquezM
- 30I. MazaM
- 7J. HofmannM
- 14P. SchickF
- 5L. BadéD
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 42M. CulbreathM
- 6E. FernándezM
- 43B. HawighorstD
- 36N. LombG
- 9Afonso MoreiraF
- 10M. TillmanM
- 12J. de LangeG
- 74K. BezahafD
- 4C. Egan-RileyD
- 21N. AguerdD
- 25U. GarciaD
- 23P. HøjbjergM
- 22T. WeahM
- 19G. KondogbiaM
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 14Igor PaixãoM
- 9A. GouiriF
- 42Nouhoum KamissokoM
- 11N. MaupayF
- 18B. MeitéD
- 43T. MmadiF
- 6T. NnadiM
- 44Antoine ValeroF
- 7A. GomesM
- 48K. AbdallahF
- 92T. VermotG
Form going into Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille
Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Europa League
- W2-0away to OFI22 October 2026
- W4-0away to Lech Poznan15 October 2026
- W2-0Celje16 September 2026
Marseille
UEFA Europa League
- L0-1away to Sturm Graz22 October 2026
- L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus15 October 2026
- L1-4away to Beşiktaş17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 9 |
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille
- 2 August 2023Marseille 1–2 Bayer LeverkusenFriendlies Clubs
The result against the call
Marseille won 1–0 at Bayer Leverkusen. The model had leaned towards a win for Bayer Leverkusen at 54% and given a win for Marseille 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Amine Gouiri 77' for Marseille. On expected goals it finished 0.99–0.94.
How the call on Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 55% / 23% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.
- Bayer Leverkusen win54%▼ −1
- Draw25%▲ +2
- Marseille win21%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.