Rubio NU vs Sportivo Luqueno Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Rubio NU 0-5 Sportivo Luqueno.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Rubio NU, 23% draw, 24% Sportivo Luqueno — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Rubio NU at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rubio NU vs Sportivo Luqueno
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32L. MaldonadoG
- 13V. CabañasD
- 31B. BlasiD
- 3J. VallejosD
- 5P. ÁlvarezD
- 23Tobías LeivaM
- 15C. NúñezM
- 26S. FretesM
- 18M. AcostaM
- 11M. RoldánM
- 9R. Ruiz DíazF
- 20A. PáezF
- 29O. AlfonsoF
- 10W. MendietaM
- 40Estiven Osmar Pérez YegrosF
- 14M. RamosD
- 8R. RojasM
- 30M. De CarvalhoF
- 16J. GonzálezD
- 36C. GiménezD
- 1N. CampisiG
- 26O. LopezD
- 5J. DiazD
- 2M. BarretoD
- 23A. CanteroD
- 37L. ComasM
- 24S. BeltránM
- 10G. BogadoM
- 14F. BenitezM
- 19M. PérezF
- 20I. MaggiF
- 40A. EspinolaG
- 9W. GonzálezF
- 15S. MaldonadoM
- 34Á. MartínezM
- 29T. MuroM
- 21M. OjedaM
- 31J. ParedesD
- 7K. PereiraF
- 25J. RamosM
Form going into Rubio NU vs Sportivo Luqueno
Rubio NU
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W4-2away to Sportivo Trinidense30 October 2026
- L0-2Club Guarani23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Recoleta16 October 2026
Sportivo Luqueno
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L0-3Nacional Asuncion31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Libertad Asuncion23 October 2026
- W3-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rubio NU | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 17 |
| 8 | Sportivo Luqueno | 19 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rubio NU vs Sportivo Luqueno
- 28 August 2026Sportivo Luqueno 2–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 2 May 2026Rubio NU 0–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 2 March 2026Sportivo Luqueno 0–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 17 July 2022Sportivo Luqueno 2–1 Rubio NUDivision Intermedia
- 8 April 2022Rubio NU 0–1 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Intermedia
- 20 August 2019Sportivo Luqueno 1–0 Rubio NUCopa Paraguay
Leading scorers: Rubio NU and Sportivo Luqueno
Rubio NU
GoalsAssists
- R. Ruiz Díaz43
Sportivo Luqueno
GoalsAssists
- I. Maggi52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sportivo Luqueno won 5–0 at Rubio NU. The model had leaned towards a win for Rubio NU at 53% and given a win for Sportivo Luqueno 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Marcelo Pérez 24' for Sportivo Luqueno, Iván Maggi 42' for Sportivo Luqueno, Iván Maggi 77' for Sportivo Luqueno, Kevin Pereira 84' for Sportivo Luqueno, Marcelo Ojeda 90+1' for Sportivo Luqueno. Sent off: Cristian Nunez (Rubio NU) 65'. On expected goals it finished 1.25–2.26.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rubio NU a 36.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.2% after a win, 46.8% after a draw, 67.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.4%, 30.5 points higher than before the match.
For Sportivo Luqueno the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 71.4% going in: 43.4% after a win, 67.6% after a draw, 84.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.4%, 28 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Rubio NU v Sportivo Luqueno has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 46% / 25% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 53% / 23% / 24%: the biggest move is Rubio NU's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Rubio NU win53%▲ +7
- Draw23%▼ −2
- Sportivo Luqueno win24%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.