Academica vs Amarante Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Academica 1-1 Amarante.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Academica, 24% draw, 20% Amarante — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Academica at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Academica vs Amarante
Line-ups
- 12Victor BragaG
- 2XaviD
- 3Ricardo TeixeiraD
- 54NiD
- 22Hélder LopesD
- 25L. PierreM
- 5Leandro SilvaD
- 20J. SinisterraM
- 23Rui GomesF
- 92A. CoundoulM
- 8K. ZohiF
- 1Nuno MacedoG
- 13KauanD
- 44P. TexelD
- 15KakaD
- 17Marcos PauloM
- 46H. NunesM
- 98Carlos AlvesG
- 9Martim TavaresF
- 7Alioune ManéF
- 65Diogo FigueiredoG
- 3Feliciano MendesD
- 4João FilipeD
- 15Rodrigo BeirãoD
- 20Luís MachadoF
- 85Nito GomesD
- 8TokinhoM
- 5Joao RicardoF
- 7L. FerreiraF
- 14A. IdacheF
- 78Simão SilvaM
- 36Ian CustódioD
- 6Rodrigo GuedesM
- 88Rúben AlvesF
- 91Rudi AlmeidaF
- 26A. ZangreM
- 9cardosoM
- 16Rodrigo CarvalhoD
- 2Gonçalo CunhaD
- 23K. IkugarF
Form going into Academica vs Amarante
Academica
Segunda Liga
- L1-2away to Vizela1 November 2026
- W4-0Leixoes24 October 2026
- W2-0away to União de Leiria11 October 2026
- L0-3Benfica B11 September 2026
Amarante
Segunda Liga
- W2-1FC Porto B31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Torreense26 October 2026
- L1-2Portimonense10 October 2026
- D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026
What these results say
- Academica scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Academica had three goals or more.
- Amarante conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Amarante failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Amarante scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Academica | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 16 |
| 14 | Amarante | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Academica vs Amarante
- 17 October 2026Academica 3–2 AmaranteTaça de Portugal
- 12 April 2026Academica 1–1 AmaranteLiga 3
- 29 March 2026Amarante 1–1 AcademicaLiga 3
- 22 October 2023Amarante 1–0 AcademicaTaça de Portugal
Leading scorers: Academica and Amarante
Academica
GoalsAssists
- K. Zohi10
- Leandro Silva10
Amarante
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Cunha10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Academica and Amarante drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Academica at 56% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Amadou Coundoul 8' for Academica, Fernando de Lacerda Gomes 70' for Amarante.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Academica a 25.8% chance to finish in the top three: 28.5% after a win, 23.4% after a draw, 17.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 23.4%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.
For Amarante the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 45.8% going in: 35.5% after a win, 42.4% after a draw, 49.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 42.4%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Academica v Amarante has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 52% / 25% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 56% / 24% / 20%: the biggest move is Academica's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Academica win56%▲ +4
- Draw24%▼ −1
- Amarante win20%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.