Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Felgueiras 1932 3-3 Leixoes.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Felgueiras 1932, 26% draw, 28% Leixoes — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Felgueiras 1932 at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes
Line-ups
- 14Mateus PasinatoG
- 70B. OuacharafD
- 3João PintoD
- 23Afonso de FreitasD
- 80Tiago Ventura da SilvaF
- 16Beni JetourM
- 10Michel CostaM
- 77Francisco FrançaM
- 5Afonso PeixotoD
- 9Tiago Rafael Fernandes LeiiteF
- 19Lucas da Costa DuarteF
- 12I. ServerG
- 25Felipe ScheibigG
- 17Filipe CruzD
- 24Rui RampaD
- 95Nuno NamoraD
- 22Samuel Oliveira Vivas CastroD
- 20Rodrigo Santos RibeiroM
- 96Martim Duarte
- 21Diogo BatistaM
- 51I. StefanovićG
- 2Fernando FonsecaD
- 3Lourenço HenriquesD
- 4Matheus CostaD
- 30Serif NhagaD
- 88Rúben PinaF
- 22Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues AraújoM
- 80João AssunçãoM
- 10Rafael BarbosaM
- 33Luccas FeitosaF
- 35B. RochezF
- 9BicaF
- 8Miguel SousaM
- 7Salvador AgraF
- 17Arthur BaggioF
- 77PaulinhoD
- 26Caio SeccoG
- 15SimãozinhoD
- 71KaiqueF
- 6A. BaldeF
Form going into Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes
Felgueiras 1932
Segunda Liga
- L2-3away to Tondela1 November 2026
- D2-2Lusitânia Lourosa25 October 2026
- L0-1away to Benfica B12 October 2026
- L1-2Penafiel12 September 2026
Leixoes
Segunda Liga
- L1-2Sporting CP B31 October 2026
- L0-4away to Academica24 October 2026
- L1-2FC Porto B10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Torreense11 September 2026
What these results say
- Felgueiras 1932 did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Leixoes did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Leixoes conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Leixoes had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Felgueiras 1932 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Leixoes | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Felgueiras 1932 vs Leixoes
- 17 January 2026Felgueiras 1932 0–1 LeixoesSegunda Liga
- 10 August 2025Leixoes 3–0 Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga
- 18 April 2025Felgueiras 1932 4–0 LeixoesSegunda Liga
- 7 December 2024Leixoes 2–2 Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga
The result against the call
Felgueiras 1932 and Leixoes drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Felgueiras 1932 at 46% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tiago Ventura da Silva 5' for Felgueiras 1932, Tiago Leite 11' for Felgueiras 1932, Bryan Rochez 33' for Leixoes, Bryan Rochez 62' for Leixoes, Matheus Costa 84' for Leixoes, Mario Rivas Viondi 90+2' for Felgueiras 1932.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Felgueiras 1932 a 30.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 26.0% after a win, 32.6% after a draw, 36.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 32.6%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
For Leixoes the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 22.2% going in: 15.3% after a win, 23.1% after a draw, 25.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 23.1%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Felgueiras 1932 v Leixoes has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is Felgueiras 1932's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Felgueiras 1932 win46%▲ +6
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Leixoes win28%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.