7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Chaves vs Penafiel Segunda Liga prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Chaves, Chaves
Referee: Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Chaves 2-3 Penafiel.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Chaves, 25% draw, 46% Penafiel — fair odds of 3.45, 4.00 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Penafiel at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chaves0%Draw4%Penafiel96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
⚽Max Svensson
🔁Néstor Araujoout: Mamadou Tounkara
34'
Aílson Tavares
36'
⚽Wilson Tavares
40'
56'
Jorge Meré
65'
🔁Pedro Sáout: francisco varela
65'
🔁Jorge Meréout: Duarte Oliveira
🔁mohamed fofanaout: Marcos André Paulino Maia
71'
🔁Andre Rodriguesout: Dru Yearwood
71'
🔁Robyn Esajasout: Roberto
71'
73'
🔁Juanda Fuentesout: Antonio David Álvarez Rey
79'
⚽Antonio David Álvarez Rey
🔁Gilberto Garcíaout: Gabriel Souza da Silva
80'
82'
⚽Antonio David Álvarez Rey
⚽Gabriel Souza da Silva
85'
86'
🔁Ricardo Schutteout: Konrad Sinyam
86'
🔁Douglas Borelout: Joao Miguel

Match stats — Chaves vs Penafiel

52%Possession48%
11Shots11
5On target4
8Corners2

Line-ups

Chaves 4-3-3
  • 1João ValidoG
  • 23Léo AlabáD
  • 34Ricardo AlvesD
  • 14N. AraújoD
  • 3Aarón RomeroD
  • 42Aílson TavaresM
  • 19Gilberto GarcíaM
  • 80mohamed fofanaM
  • 10André RodriguesF
  • 18Wilson TavaresF
  • 7R. EsajasD
Substitutes
  • 30CostinhaF
  • 6B. EboudjéM
  • 99GBF
  • 88M. GudžulićG
  • 2A. HerbertD
  • 8João TeixeiraM
  • 9Marcos MaiaF
  • 17RobertoF
  • 33Tiago SimõesD
Coach: Vitor Martins
Penafiel 3-4-3
  • 1Miguel OliveiraG
  • 14Jorge MeréD
  • 6Adrián PicaD
  • 3Cláudio SilvaD
  • 7Douglas BorelD
  • 17João PintoF
  • 21Pedro SáM
  • 2Iano ImbeneD
  • 11J. FuentesF
  • 9Max SvenssonF
  • 33Ricardo SchutteF
Substitutes
  • 10DavoF
  • 22Martim AlbertoD
  • 99ClaudioF
  • 4João MiguelD
  • 27Gonçalo NegrãoD
  • 18Konrad SinyamM
  • 23Duarte OliveiraD
  • 38M. RamonM
  • 13Eric PuertoG
Coach: José Manuel Aira

Form going into Chaves vs Penafiel

Chaves

Segunda Liga

  • L1-3away to Benfica B31 October 2026
  • W2-1Vizela23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Lusitânia Lourosa11 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Farense4 October 2026

Penafiel

Segunda Liga

  • W1-0Feirense2 November 2026
  • W4-1away to Farense24 October 2026
  • L1-2AVS9 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Felgueiras 193212 September 2026

What these results say

  • Chaves conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Chaves failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Chaves scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Penafiel scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Penafiel won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Penafiel conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Chaves102261121-108
1Penafiel107122210+1222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chaves vs Penafiel

  • 6 February 2026Chaves 0–1 PenafielSegunda Liga
  • 30 August 2025Penafiel 0–2 ChavesSegunda Liga
  • 15 May 2025Penafiel 0–0 ChavesSegunda Liga
  • 4 January 2025Chaves 0–1 PenafielSegunda Liga
  • 18 July 2023Penafiel 1–2 ChavesFriendlies Clubs
  • 6 March 2022Penafiel 2–1 ChavesSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: Chaves and Penafiel

Chaves

GoalsAssists

  • André Rodrigues10

Penafiel

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Penafiel won 3–2 at Chaves. The model had made a win for Penafiel its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Max Svensson 21' for Penafiel, Wilson Tavares 40' for Chaves, Antonio David Álvarez Rey 79' for Penafiel, Antonio David Álvarez Rey 82' for Penafiel, Gabriel Souza da Silva 85' for Chaves.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chaves a 47.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 39.9% after a win, 45.1% after a draw, 51.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.9%, 4.9 points higher than before the match.

For Penafiel the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 63.0% going in: 68.4% after a win, 60.3% after a draw, 56.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.4%, 5.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Chaves v Penafiel has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 33% / 25% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 29% / 25% / 46%: the biggest move is Chaves's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Chaves win29%▼ −4
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Penafiel win46%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.