1 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave Primeira Liga prediction & result

Viseu
Referee: Joao Goncalves
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Academico Viseu 2-1 Rio Ave.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% Academico Viseu, 22% draw, 16% Rio Ave — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Academico Viseu at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Academico Viseu97%Draw3%Rio Ave0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
⚽Miguel Patricíoassist: João Tomé Baptista
57'
Jalen Blesa
Soufiane Messeguem
63'
🔁Cihan Kahramanout: Alejandro Mestanza
64'
🔁Anthony Correiaout: Hugo Gambor
64'
🔁João Guilhermeout: Lorougnon Gohi
65'
⚽Soufiane Messeguemassist: André Clóvis
69'
75'
🔁Miguel Patricíoout: Malik Sellouki
76'
Georgios Liavas
⚽André Clóvisassist: Alejandro Mestanza
77'
81'
🔁João Tomé Baptistaout: Jose Carlos Teixeira Lopes Reis Goncalves
81'
🔁Sebastian Clemensenout: Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro
🔁Nils Mortimerout: Valery Fernandez Estrada
86'
86'
🔁Georgios Liavasout: Ryan Guilherme
🔁André Clóvisout: Mohamed Bouldini
89'
90+6'
Andreas Ntoi

Match stats — Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave

45%Possession55%
13Shots12
5On target5
5Corners6
0.94xG1.14

Goals against chances

Academico Viseu2 from 0.94 xGmore than the chances were worth
Rio Ave1 from 1.14 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Academico Viseu 4-2-3-1
  • 98EwertonG
  • 75RobinhoD
  • 41A. CorreiaD
  • 2N. MichelisD
  • 3Miguel BrauD
  • 7Luís SilvaM
  • 14S. MesseguemM
  • 22Nils MortimerM
  • 8C. KahramanM
  • 31João GuilhermeM
  • 33André ClóvisF
Substitutes
  • 21Tomás DomingosD
  • 6André CeitilM
  • 9M. BouldiniF
  • 18C. FerreiraM
  • 82H. GamborD
  • 47L. GohiF
  • 57G. CostaD
  • 45Alejandro MestanzaM
  • 5Pedro BarcelosD
Coach: Bruno Pinheiro
Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
  • 99E. van der GouwG
  • 20João ToméD
  • 5A. NtoiD
  • 39Gustavo ManchaD
  • 17M. VrousaiD
  • 90Diogo NascimentoM
  • 54G. LiavasM
  • 80S. ClemmensenM
  • 79M. PatricioM
  • 7Diogo BezerraM
  • 11J. BlesaF
Substitutes
  • 13J. LombotoD
  • 27T. MedinaM
  • 44T. NikitscherM
  • 23F. PetrassoD
  • 8Ryan GuilhermeM
  • 19M. SelloukiM
  • 77D. ŠpikićF
  • 9Tamble MonteiroF
  • 32Vitor HugoG
Coach: Vasco Seabra

Form going into Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave

Academico Viseu

Primeira Liga

  • W2-1away to Sporting CP25 October 2026
  • W2-1Estoril10 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Estrela20 September 2026

Rio Ave

Primeira Liga

  • L0-4Famalicao25 October 2026
  • W3-2Nacional11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Alverca19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Academico Viseu116231513+220
17Rio Ave11218924-157

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave

  • 22 July 2023Rio Ave 3–0 Academico ViseuTaça da Liga
  • 30 July 2022Rio Ave 1–0 Academico ViseuFriendlies Clubs
  • 18 March 2022Academico Viseu 0–1 Rio AveSegunda Liga
  • 31 October 2021Rio Ave 1–2 Academico ViseuSegunda Liga

The full Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave record →

Leading scorers: Academico Viseu and Rio Ave

Academico Viseu

GoalsAssists

  • André Clóvis51
  • S. Messeguem31
  • João Guilherme30

Rio Ave

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Academico Viseu beat Rio Ave 2–1. The model had made a win for Academico Viseu its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Miguel Patricío 38' for Rio Ave, Soufiane Messeguem 69' for Academico Viseu, André Clóvis 77' for Academico Viseu. Sent off: Andreas Ntoi (Rio Ave) 90+6'. On expected goals it finished 0.94–1.14.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rio Ave a 57.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 44.8% after a win, 54.9% after a draw, 60.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.4%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Academico Viseu v Rio Ave has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 56% / 24% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 62% / 22% / 16%: the biggest move is Academico Viseu's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Academico Viseu win62%▲ +6
  2. Draw22%▼ −2
  3. Rio Ave win16%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.