Maritimo vs Santa Clara Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Maritimo 0-2 Santa Clara.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Maritimo, 28% draw, 47% Santa Clara — fair odds of 4.00, 3.57 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Santa Clara at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Maritimo vs Santa Clara
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Fran VieitesG
- 4Rafael FernandesD
- 44Romain CorreiaD
- 22G. SzalaiD
- 2Igor JuliãoM
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 6Rodrigo AndradeM
- 23Paulo HenriqueM
- 12M. BassouaminaF
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 10Martín TejónF
- 66I. AyumaM
- 27S. BambaF
- 90Maurice Osei BoakyeF
- 11M. DiouriF
- 18V. DanilovićM
- 15Tomás TavaresD
- 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
- 3N. OgbetaD
- 13Alfonso PastorG
- 12NenecaG
- 42Lucas SoaresD
- 4Pedro PachecoD
- 21Emanuel FernandesD
- 5Guilherme RomãoD
- 41Daniel BorgesM
- 20Tiago RibeiroM
- 8José Luís Rocha TavaresM
- 70Vinícius LopesF
- 7Luis Fernando Santos OliveiraF
- 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves SantosF
- 17João VasconcelosM
- 76Tome·de Castro SousaG
- 99SorrisoF
- 19YthalloD
- 80Tiago Ribeiro DuarteF
- 11Welinton TorrãoF
- 73Léo JacóF
- 81Seydou FofanaM
- 3Henrique SilvaD
Form going into Maritimo vs Santa Clara
Maritimo
Primeira Liga
- L0-5away to Vitória SC23 October 2026
- L1-2FC Porto10 October 2026
- D1-1away to GIL Vicente19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Moreirense14 September 2026
Santa Clara
Primeira Liga
- L1-2Benfica26 October 2026
- W1-0away to Casa Pia10 October 2026
- D0-0SC Braga20 September 2026
What these results say
- Maritimo did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Maritimo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Maritimo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 8 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Maritimo vs Santa Clara
Maritimo and Santa Clara have met 7 times in the records we hold, Santa Clara has won 3 of them to Maritimo's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
Santa Clara won the last one 2–0 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Primeira LigaMaritimo 0–2 Santa Clara - 14 Apr 2024
Segunda LigaMaritimo 0–0 Santa Clara - 3 Dec 2023
Segunda LigaSanta Clara 2–1 Maritimo - 25 Feb 2023
Primeira LigaMaritimo 3–1 Santa Clara - 4 Sep 2022
Primeira LigaSanta Clara 2–1 Maritimo - 29 Jul 2022
Friendlies ClubsMaritimo 1–0 Santa Clara - 23 Apr 2022
Primeira LigaSanta Clara 2–2 Maritimo
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Santa Clara's attack rates 19% above Maritimo's, and Santa Clara concede 42% fewer than Maritimo. That gives Santa Clara the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 0.75 | 1.52 |
| Santa Clara | 0.89 | 0.88 |
Leading scorers: Maritimo and Santa Clara
Maritimo
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Santa Clara
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Paciência51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santa Clara won 2–0 at Maritimo. The model had made a win for Santa Clara its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Tiago Ribeiro 36' for Santa Clara, Vinicius lopes 60' for Santa Clara. On expected goals it finished 2.10–0.84.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Maritimo a 35.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 27.1% after a win, 33.6% after a draw, 39.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.4%, 4.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Maritimo v Santa Clara has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 30% / 29% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 25% / 28% / 47%: the biggest move is Santa Clara's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Maritimo win25%▼ −5
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Santa Clara win47%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.