1 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Arouca vs Nacional Primeira Liga prediction & result

Arouca
Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Arouca 1-0 Nacional.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Arouca, 26% draw, 22% Nacional — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Arouca at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arouca97%Draw3%Nacional0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Taichi Fukuiout: Pablo Gozálbez
59'
⚽Tiago Esgaioassist: Näis Djouahra
64'
70'
🔁Stavros Gavrielout: Matchoi Djaló
70'
🔁Chiheb Labidiout: Danel Dongmo
71'
🔁N. Kaderout: Pablo Ruan
🔁Iván Barberoout: Dylan Nandín
71'
74'
Matchoi Djaló
🔁Mateo Floresout: Lee Hyun-ju
75'
🔁Alfonso Trezzaout: Brian Mansilla
75'
Orest Lebedenko
76'
78'
Danel Dongmo
81'
🔁Miguel Baezaout: Daniel de Melo Araujo Junior
81'
🔁Song Min-kyuout: Allen Obando
Pablo Gozálbez
90+4'

Match stats — Arouca vs Nacional

62%Possession38%
12Shots5
5On target1
8Corners2
0.74xG0.34

Goals against chances

Arouca1 from 0.74 xGabout what the chances were worth
Nacional0 from 0.34 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Arouca 4-2-3-1
  • 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
  • 28Tiago EsgaioD
  • 15Javi SánchezD
  • 3José FontánD
  • 18O. LebedenkoD
  • 6E. van EeM
  • 21Mateo FloresM
  • 19A. TrezzaM
  • 8T. FukuiM
  • 7N. DjouahraM
  • 17BarberoF
Substitutes
  • 37Mario ClimentD
  • 10Pablo GozálbezM
  • 14Lee Hyun-JuM
  • 24B. MansillaF
  • 9F. MayuluF
  • 4Diogo MonteiroD
  • 23D. NandínF
  • 77S. ParkF
  • 5B. PopovićD
Coach: Vítor Severino
Nacional 4-2-3-1
  • 1Renato BellucciG
  • 7M. JensenD
  • 33Francisco GonçalvesD
  • 38Zé VitorD
  • 21W. KokoloD
  • 6Matheus DiasM
  • 8Miguel BaezaM
  • 11S. GavrielM
  • 15C. LabidiM
  • 12Song Min-KyuM
  • 29N. KaderF
Substitutes
  • 99Pablo RuanF
  • 9A. ObandoF
  • 5José GomesD
  • 13João GonçalvesG
  • 14Ivanildo FernandesD
  • 31D. DongmoM
  • 20Matchoi DjalóM
  • 10Daniel JúniorM
  • 88DeivisonM
Coach: João Henriques

Form going into Arouca vs Nacional

Arouca

Primeira Liga

  • W1-0away to Alverca24 October 2026
  • W1-0Estrela11 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Sporting CP19 September 2026

Nacional

Primeira Liga

  • W1-0SC Braga25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Rio Ave11 October 2026
  • L0-4Famalicao19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Arouca11623138+520
13Nacional113171119-810

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arouca vs Nacional

Arouca and Nacional have met 7 times in the records we hold, Arouca has won 5 of them to Nacional's 1, with 1 drawn.

The record

Arouca won the last one 1–0 on 1 Nov 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Arouca511115
Nacional115511

Between them these 7 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.29 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 1 Nov 2026
    Primeira Liga    Arouca 1–0 Nacional
  • 21 Feb 2026
    Primeira Liga    Arouca 3–0 Nacional
  • 20 Sep 2025
    Primeira Liga    Nacional 1–2 Arouca
  • 1 Feb 2025
    Primeira Liga    Nacional 1–2 Arouca
  • 25 Aug 2024
    Primeira Liga    Arouca 1–0 Nacional
  • 6 May 2018
    Segunda Liga    Arouca 0–1 Nacional
  • 22 Dec 2017
    Segunda Liga    Nacional 2–2 Arouca

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Arouca's attack rates 19% above Nacional's, and Arouca concede 19% fewer than Nacional. That gives Arouca the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Arouca0.890.96
Nacional0.751.19

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Arouca and Nacional

Arouca

GoalsAssists

  • Barbero50

Nacional

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Arouca beat Nacional 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Arouca at 52%. The goal: Tiago Esgaio 64' for Arouca. On expected goals it finished 0.74–0.34.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nacional a 31.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 23.9% after a win, 29.6% after a draw, 34.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.4%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Arouca v Nacional has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 54% / 25% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is Arouca's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Arouca win52%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Nacional win22%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.