17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham League Two prediction & result

The Wham Stadium, Accrington
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Accrington Stanley 3-1 Gillingham.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Accrington Stanley, 28% draw, 33% Gillingham — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Accrington Stanley at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Devon matthews
6'
⚽Stefan Mols
11'
Donald Love
19'
21'
Harry Waldock
⚽Josh Woodsassist: Stefan Mols
28'
31'
⚽Devon matthews (OG)
33'
Armani Little
54'
🔁Logan Dobbsout: Jack Daley
55'
🔁Harry Waldockout: Ethan·Coleman
55'
🔁Armani Littleout: Tom Eaves
⚽Josh Woodsassist: Stefan Mols
66'
70'
🔁Andy Smithout: Garath McCleary
70'
🔁Lamin Sillahout: Bradley Dack
🔁Charlie Warrenout: Conor Grant
76'
79'
Ronan Chapman Hale

Match stats — Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham

56%Possession44%
21Shots6
7On target0
11Corners1
1.46xG0.54

Goals against chances

Accrington Stanley3 from 1.46 xGmore than the chances were worth
Gillingham1 from 0.54 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Accrington Stanley 3-4-1-2
  • 1L. MouldenG
  • 2D. LoveD
  • 17D. MatthewsD
  • 22J. AndersonD
  • 38C. O'BrienM
  • 16Aidan BorlandM
  • 14Stefan MolsM
  • 33D. TutondaM
  • 39J. WoodsM
  • 23T. WaltonF
  • 30C. WarrenF
Substitutes
  • 8C. GrantM
  • 4T. MooreD
  • 21J. RogersonG
  • 3Oliver SmithD
  • 25J. SmithD
  • 20C. BrownF
Coach: J. Doolan
Gillingham 3-4-3
  • 1O. WrightG
  • 5A. SmithD
  • 19O. BecklesD
  • 26L. DobbsD
  • 22N. FreemanM
  • 14R. McKenzieM
  • 8A. LittleM
  • 16J. BrophyM
  • 24H. WaldockF
  • 11L. SillahF
  • 10Ronan HaleF
Substitutes
  • 6E. ColemanM
  • 23B. DackM
  • 20J. DaleyD
  • 39T. EavesF
  • 18S. KendallM
  • 40R. LuthraG
  • 12G. McClearyM
Coach: G. Ainsworth

Form going into Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham

Accrington Stanley

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Oldham10 October 2026
  • W2-0Cheltenham3 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Swindon Town26 September 2026

Gillingham

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1away to Rotherham10 October 2026
  • D0-0Newport County3 October 2026
  • L0-3away to York26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Accrington Stanley154742521+419
12Gillingham155552021-120

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham

  • 6 April 2026Gillingham 2–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
  • 2 August 2025Accrington Stanley 1–1 GillinghamLeague Two
  • 15 March 2025Accrington Stanley 1–1 GillinghamLeague Two
  • 12 October 2024Gillingham 1–2 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
  • 13 January 2024Accrington Stanley 1–2 GillinghamLeague Two

Leading scorers: Accrington Stanley and Gillingham

Accrington Stanley

GoalsAssists

  • J. Woods71
  • C. Caton50

Gillingham

GoalsAssists

  • Ronan Hale61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Accrington Stanley beat Gillingham 3–1. The model had made a win for Accrington Stanley its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Stefan Mols 11' for Accrington Stanley, Josh Woods 28' for Accrington Stanley, Devon matthews (own goal) 31' for Gillingham, Josh Woods 66' for Accrington Stanley. On expected goals it finished 1.46–0.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Accrington Stanley these chances to finish in the bottom three: 18.2% after a win, 22.9% after a draw, 24.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 18.2%.

For Gillingham the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 11.7% going in: 14.8% after a win, 10.2% after a draw, 9.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.0%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.