17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Wrexham vs Preston Championship prediction & result

Racecourse Ground, Wrexham
Referee: Simon Hooper
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Wrexham 4-1 Preston.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Wrexham, 26% draw, 21% Preston — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Wrexham at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wrexham99%Draw1%Preston0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
Andrija Vukčević
Benjamin Whiteman
21'
⚽Joe Worrallassist: Danny Imray
31'
36'
⚽Alfie Devine
⚽Benjamin Whiteman
42'
56'
🔁Liam Lindsayout: Brad Potts
⚽Sam Smithassist: Benjamin Whiteman
59'
62'
Andrew Hughes
⚽Kieffer Mooreassist: Joe Worrall
63'
66'
Jordan Thompson
🔁Danny Imrayout: Issa Kabore
68'
69'
🔁Johnny Kennyout: Delano Burgzorg
70'
🔁Callum Langout: Jusef Erabi
79'
🔁Alfie Devineout: Ed Nolan
Callum Doyle
80'
80'
Leo Leroy
🔁Matty Jamesout: George Dobson
81'
🔁Kieffer Mooreout: B. Cadamarteri
81'
🔁Callum O'Hareout: Oliver Rathbone
81'
🔁Sam Smithout: Lewis O'Brien
90'

Match stats — Wrexham vs Preston

62%Possession38%
17Shots11
6On target1
8Corners2
1.97xG0.79

Goals against chances

Wrexham4 from 1.97 xGmore than the chances were worth
Preston1 from 0.79 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wrexham 3-4-1-2
  • 22A. PattersonG
  • 5D. HyamD
  • 6J. WorrallD
  • 2C. DoyleD
  • 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayM
  • 8B. WhitemanM
  • 37M. JamesM
  • 3J. EkomiéM
  • 17C. O'HareM
  • 19K. MooreF
  • 28S. SmithF
Substitutes
  • 11B. CadamarteriF
  • 15G. DobsonM
  • 34A. JamesD
  • 12I. KaboréD
  • 47R. LongmanM
  • 27L. O'BrienM
  • 20O. RathboneM
  • 26Z. VynerD
  • 21D. WardG
Coach: P. Parkinson
Preston 3-4-2-1
  • 1D. IversenG
  • 14J. StoreyD
  • 6L. LindsayD
  • 16A. HughesD
  • 24O. OffiahM
  • 27L. LeroyM
  • 15J. ThompsonM
  • 3A. VukčevićM
  • 10C. LangM
  • 7A. DevineM
  • 38J. KennyF
Substitutes
  • 44B. PottsM
  • 11T. SmallD
  • 2Pol ValentínD
  • 23A. MoranM
  • 9J. ErabiF
  • 21L. NichollsG
  • 37D. BurgzorgF
  • 35Isaac IrwinD
  • 32Ed NolanD
Coach: G. Alexander

Form going into Wrexham vs Preston

Wrexham

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2West Brom13 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Derby10 October 2026
  • W2-1Southampton19 September 2026
  • L0-6away to West Ham11 September 2026
  • D1-1Burnley8 September 2026

Preston

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4away to Birmingham13 October 2026
  • L0-1Millwall10 October 2026
  • D2-2away to QPR19 September 2026
  • L0-1Lincoln12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Watford8 September 2026

What these results say

  • Wrexham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Wrexham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Wrexham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Preston did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Preston conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Wrexham154651820-218
24Preston1522111330-178

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Wrexham vs Preston

  • 29 December 2025Wrexham 2–1 PrestonChampionship
  • 6 December 2025Preston 1–1 WrexhamChampionship
  • 26 August 2025Preston 2–3 WrexhamLeague Cup

Leading scorers: Wrexham and Preston

Wrexham

GoalsAssists

  • K. Moore52

Preston

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Wrexham beat Preston 4–1. The model had made a win for Wrexham its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Joe Worrall 31' for Wrexham, Alfie Devine 36' for Preston, Benjamin Whiteman 42' for Wrexham, Sam Smith 59' for Wrexham, Kieffer Moore 63' for Wrexham. On expected goals it finished 1.97–0.79.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wrexham a 12.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.2% after a win, 13.0% after a draw, 16.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.2%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.

For Preston the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 78.5% going in: 74.0% after a win, 77.6% after a draw, 81.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 81.3%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Wrexham v Preston has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is Wrexham's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Wrexham win53%▲ +7
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Preston win21%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.