17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Crewe vs Rochdale League Two prediction & result

Alexandra Stadium, Crewe
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Crewe 3-2 Rochdale.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Crewe, 29% draw, 25% Rochdale — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Crewe at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Matúš Holíčekassist: Jordan Gibson
39'
⚽Jordan Gibsonassist: Owen lunt
45'
🔁Matúš Holíčekout: Conor Thomas
45'
Joe White
50'
⚽Jordan Gibsonassist: Kyle Ure
55'
🔁Joe Whiteout: Calum·Agius
60'
63'
🔁Dajaune Brownout: Emmanuel Dieseruvwe
63'
🔁Cian Hayesout: Edward Francis
63'
🔁Charlie Taskerout: sam beckwith
65'
⚽Joel Tabiner (OG)
🔁Jordan Gibsonout: Stan Dancey
75'
🔁Kyle Ureout: Reece Hutchinson
75'
🔁Joel Tabinerout: Adrien thibaut
75'
79'
🔁Babajide Ezekiel Adeekoout: Zain Silcott-Duberry
90'
⚽Aden Flintassist: Edward Francis

Match stats — Crewe vs Rochdale

40%Possession60%
10Shots15
4On target3
1Corners7
1.53xG0.89

Goals against chances

Crewe3 from 1.53 xGmore than the chances were worth
Rochdale2 from 0.89 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Crewe 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. BoothG
  • 2L. BillingtonD
  • 6L. OffordD
  • 12J. StephensonD
  • 4Kyle UreD
  • 19O. LuntM
  • 10J. WhiteM
  • 11J. TabinerM
  • 17M. HolíčekM
  • 14J. GibsonM
  • 9J. MarchF
Substitutes
  • 20Calum AgiusF
  • 3R. HutchinsonD
  • 13I. LawlorG
  • 23C. McNeillF
  • 29A. ThibautF
  • 8C. ThomasM
  • 30Stan DanceyD
Coach: Lee Bell
Rochdale 4-2-3-1
  • 20Sam William John WallerG
  • 13O. Adebayo-RowlingD
  • 44A. FlintD
  • 3Kaiden WilsonD
  • 2C. TaskerD
  • 8H. GilmourM
  • 17B. AdeekoM
  • 7C. HayesM
  • 21Kane TaylorM
  • 45G. MiddletonM
  • 39D. BrownF
Substitutes
  • 11Z. Silcott-DuberryF
  • 26S. SherringD
  • 19L. HannantM
  • 14E. FrancisM
  • 9E. DieseruvweF
  • 33S. BeckwithD
  • 12J. SpavenG
Coach: Ian Watson

Form going into Crewe vs Rochdale

Crewe

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Swindon Town10 October 2026
  • W3-1Bristol Rovers3 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Rotherham26 September 2026

Rochdale

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Tranmere10 October 2026
  • W1-0Swindon Town3 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Fleetwood Town26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Crewe155821919023
22Rochdale154381727-1015

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Crewe vs Rochdale

  • 25 February 2023Crewe 1–1 RochdaleLeague Two
  • 30 July 2022Rochdale 1–2 CreweLeague Two
  • 24 April 2021Crewe 1–1 RochdaleLeague One
  • 9 January 2021Rochdale 3–3 CreweLeague One
  • 16 February 2016Rochdale 2–2 CreweLeague One

Leading scorers: Crewe and Rochdale

Crewe

GoalsAssists

  • J. Gibson52

Rochdale

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Crewe beat Rochdale 3–2. The model had made a win for Crewe its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Matúš Holíček 39' for Crewe, Jordan Gibson 45' for Crewe, Jordan Gibson 55' for Crewe, Joel Tabiner (own goal) 65' for Rochdale, Aden Flint 90' for Rochdale. On expected goals it finished 1.53–0.89.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Crewe a 35.5% chance to finish in the top four: 39.0% after a win, 32.8% after a draw, 30.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.0%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.

For Rochdale the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 10.5% going in: 6.6% after a win, 11.1% after a draw, 11.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.7%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Crewe v Rochdale has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Crewe's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Crewe win46%▲ +4
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Rochdale win25%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.