Colchester vs Exeter City League Two prediction & result
Final score: Colchester 0-0 Exeter City.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Colchester, 29% draw, 35% Exeter City — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Colchester at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Colchester vs Exeter City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22T. Lo-TutalaG
- 2R. HuntD
- 5J. TuckerD
- 24F. TerryD
- 3E. IandoloD
- 6P. DigbyM
- 26J. WilliamsM
- 27O. ThornM
- 12M. SesayM
- 15B. LubalaM
- 9B. IhionvienF
- 44S. KuffourD
- 4Ben PerryM
- 31Oscar RobertsG
- 30K. Vincent-YoungD
- 47R. HarveyM
- 39K. ConnellyF
- 11L. ChiwomeF
- 1J. BycroftG
- 2L. SamuelD
- 6J. TaylorD
- 5J. FitzwaterD
- 3L. WoodhouseD
- 31J. Doyle-HayesM
- 16C. CumminsM
- 25A. ScullyM
- 8T. PerryM
- 20George BirchM
- 10J. GordonF
- 19S. CoxF
- 12R. ColeM
- 24V. HarperD
- 40E. JamesD
- 18Liam OakesD
- 22Frankie PhillipsG
- 23Ethan SutherlandD
Form going into Colchester vs Exeter City
Colchester
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Newport County10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Shrewsbury26 September 2026
Exeter City
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Shrewsbury10 October 2026
- W1-0Rotherham3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bristol Rovers26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Colchester | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 15 |
| 8 | Exeter City | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Colchester vs Exeter City
- 15 April 2022Exeter City 2–0 ColchesterLeague Two
- 23 November 2021Colchester 3–1 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 23 February 2021Colchester 1–2 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 24 November 2020Exeter City 6–1 ColchesterLeague Two
- 22 June 2020Exeter City 3–1 ColchesterLeague Two
The result against the call
Colchester and Exeter City drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Colchester at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.22–0.30.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Colchester a 10.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.3% after a win, 11.2% after a draw, 12.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.2%, 0.8 points higher than before the match.
For Exeter City the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 18.9% going in: 22.2% after a win, 18.7% after a draw, 15.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 18.7%.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.