31 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Grimsby vs York League Two prediction & result

Blundell Park, Cleethorpes
Referee: A. Jackson
Full time5 – 2

Final score: Grimsby 5-2 York.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Grimsby, 26% draw, 32% York — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Grimsby at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Grimsby99%Draw1%York0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Andy Cookassist: Cameron McJannett
13'
18'
⚽Alex Hunt
28'
⚽Jack Hunt
⚽Iwan Morgan
31'
55'
🔁J. Stonesout: jovan malcolm
55'
🔁Joey Greyout: Frankie Maguire
🔁Andy Cookout: Josh andrews
67'
🔁Charles Vernamout: Sonny Finch
67'
68'
🔁Ryan Fallowfieldout: Joseph Rabole Felix
68'
🔁Arthur Readout: Alex Newby
⚽Cameron McJannettassist: Iwan Morgan
75'
⚽Josh andrewsassist: Géza Dávid Turi
78'
🔁Jamie Walkerout: Finn Cartwright
80'
80'
🔁Harry Boyesout: Zech Medley
🔁Iwan Morganout: Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor
80'
⚽Géza Dávid Turiassist: Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzor
86'
🔁Kieran Greenout: Cian Doyle
90'

Match stats — Grimsby vs York

31%Possession69%
24Shots10
8On target3
5Corners4
2.88xG0.39

Goals against chances

Grimsby5 from 2.88 xGmore than the chances were worth
York2 from 0.39 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Grimsby 3-4-1-2
  • 31C. PymG
  • 5H. RodgersD
  • 2M. KacurriD
  • 17C. McJannetD
  • 12J. FoulkesM
  • 15G. TuriM
  • 7J. WalkerM
  • 30C. VernamM
  • 4K. GreenM
  • 9Iwan MorganF
  • 39A. CookF
Substitutes
  • 14J. AmaluzorF
  • 19J. AndrewsF
  • 1H. CartwrightG
  • 11Ryley ReynoldsM
  • 28F. CartwrightM
  • 8Cian DoyleM
  • 10S. FinchF
Coach: D. Artell
York 3-4-2-1
  • 1Alfie Shane McNallyG
  • 2R. FallowfieldD
  • 5Z. JohnsonD
  • 3M. KitchingD
  • 32J. HuntM
  • 8A. HuntM
  • 16A. ReadM
  • 12H. BoyesM
  • 7J. GreyM
  • 10O. PearceM
  • 9J. StonesF
Substitutes
  • 30A. NewbyM
  • 18J. MalcolmF
  • 4Z. MedleyD
  • 15J. KingD
  • 31G. Sykes-KenworthyG
  • 23J. FelixD
  • 11F. MaguireM
Coach: S. Lindsey

Form going into Grimsby vs York

Grimsby

League Two

  • W4-1away to Gillingham24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Rochdale20 October 2026
  • L0-2Northampton17 October 2026

York

League Two

  • L1-3away to Barnet27 October 2026
  • W2-0Port Vale24 October 2026
  • D1-1Accrington Stanley20 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Grimsby156542819+923
4York156542521+423

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Grimsby vs York

  • 20 July 2024York 2–1 GrimsbyFriendlies Clubs
  • 13 March 2012Grimsby 2–3 YorkNational League
  • 25 February 2012Grimsby 0–1 YorkFA Trophy
  • 15 October 2011York 2–1 GrimsbyNational League

Leading scorers: Grimsby and York

Grimsby

No player in League Two's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.

York

GoalsAssists

  • O. Pearce74
  • A. Newby61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Grimsby beat York 5–2. The model had made a win for Grimsby its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Andy Cook 13' for Grimsby, Alex Hunt 18' for York, Jack Hunt 28' for York, Iwan Morgan 31' for Grimsby, Cameron McJannett 75' for Grimsby, Josh andrews 78' for Grimsby, Géza Dávid Turi 86' for Grimsby. On expected goals it finished 2.88–0.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Grimsby a 22.7% chance to finish in the top three: 26.9% after a win, 20.4% after a draw, 17.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.9%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

For York the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 31.4% going in: 37.2% after a win, 31.5% after a draw, 26.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.8%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.