West Ham vs West Brom Championship prediction & result
Final score: West Ham 1-3 West Brom.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% West Ham, 23% draw, 19% West Brom — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
West Ham at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — West Ham vs West Brom
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. HermansenG
- 2K. Walker-PetersD
- 58A. GolambeckisD
- 3M. KilmanD
- 5MoratoD
- 20J. BowenM
- 14D. MukasaM
- 7A. EngelsM
- 35E. AustböM
- 19PabloF
- 17M. KantéF
- 34J. VeltmanD
- 28T. SoučekM
- 10M. SolomonF
- 9J. PiroeF
- 61L. OrfordM
- 63Ezra MayersD
- 27S. MagassaM
- 11V. CastellanosF
- 23A. AreolaG
- 1M. O’LearyG
- 18B. PereiraD
- 2C. MephamD
- 6G. CampbellD
- 4C. StylesD
- 20R. NzingoulaM
- 8J. MolumbyM
- 17O. DiakitéM
- 21I. PriceM
- 11J. MorganF
- 7F. MyhreF
- 19A. HeggebøF
- 23T. BanyF
- 3N. PhillipsD
- 13M. IngramG
- 9B. StewartF
- 22C. TownsendD
- 26K. TundeF
- 29Harry WhitwellM
- 35M. CrowtherM
Form going into West Ham vs West Brom
West Ham
Championship
- L2-3Southampton24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Swansea17 October 2026
West Brom
Championship
- D1-1away to Preston24 October 2026
- W3-2Blackburn17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 23 | +14 | 23 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: West Brom vs West Ham
West Brom and West Ham have met 7 times in the records we hold, West Ham has won 3 of them to West Brom's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
West Brom won the last one 3–1 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 |
| West Ham | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
ChampionshipWest Ham 1–3 West Brom - 19 May 2021
Premier LeagueWest Brom 1–3 West Ham - 19 Jan 2021
Premier LeagueWest Ham 2–1 West Brom - 25 Jan 2020
FA CupWest Ham 0–1 West Brom - 2 Jan 2018
Premier LeagueWest Ham 2–1 West Brom - 16 Sep 2017
Premier LeagueWest Brom 0–0 West Ham - 11 Feb 2017
Premier LeagueWest Ham 2–2 West Brom
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, West Ham's attack rates 58% above West Brom's, and West Brom concede 28% fewer than West Ham. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: West Ham and West Brom
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen77
- K. Mavropanos50
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- I. Price63
- J. Morgan54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
West Brom won 3–1 at West Ham. The model had leaned towards a win for West Ham at 58% and given a win for West Brom 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Felix Horn Myhre 20' for West Brom, Jarrod Bowen 29' for West Ham, J. Morgan 48' for West Brom, Callum Styles 72' for West Brom. On expected goals it finished 0.95–2.08.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave West Ham a 58.2% chance to finish in the top two: 61.5% after a win, 53.3% after a draw, 50.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.3%, 7.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on West Ham v West Brom has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 52% / 28% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 58% / 23% / 19%: the biggest move is West Ham's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- West Ham win58%▲ +6
- Draw23%▼ −5
- West Brom win19%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.