31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Wolves vs Cardiff Championship prediction & result

Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton
Referee: Josh Smith
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Wolves 3-0 Cardiff.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Wolves, 27% draw, 29% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Wolves at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Wolves99%Draw1%Cardiff0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Fer Lópezassist: Hugo Bueno
10'
⚽Adam Armstrongassist: Rafiki Said Ahamada
15'
Adam Armstrong
26'
🔁Jordan Jamesout: Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
36'
André
42'
Fer López
50'
56'
Joel Bagan
⚽Ladislav Krejčíassist: Kieran Trippier
58'
61'
🔁Christopher Willockout: Rubin Colwill
61'
🔁Calum Scanlonout: C. Ashford
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
62'
🔁Fer Lópezout: Rodrigo Gomes
66'
🔁Rafiki Said Ahamadaout: Mateus Mane
67'
72'
🔁Alexander Sean Pablo Robertsonout: David Turnbull
72'
🔁William Fishout: Ronan Kpakio
🔁Adam Armstrongout: Tawanda Chirewa
76'
🔁Andréout: Thomas Doyle
76'
88'
🔁Ollie·Tannerout: Charlie Holt
90+2'
Rubin Colwill

Match stats — Wolves vs Cardiff

39%Possession61%
13Shots13
4On target9
3Corners5
1.6xG1.12

Goals against chances

Wolves3 from 1.60 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cardiff0 from 1.12 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Wolves 4-2-3-1
  • 1José SáG
  • 2K. TrippierD
  • 15Y. MosqueraD
  • 37L. KrejčíD
  • 3Hugo BuenoD
  • 7AndréM
  • 5M. MunetsiM
  • 28Fer LópezM
  • 8J. JamesM
  • 19R. SaïdM
  • 10A. ArmstrongF
Substitutes
  • 27J. BellegardeM
  • 23T. ChirewaF
  • 20T. DoyleM
  • 21Rodrigo GomesF
  • 36M. ManeF
  • 14S. NeaveF
  • 38J. TchatchouaD
  • 24Toti GomesD
  • 13João VirgíniaG
Coach: César Peixoto
Cardiff 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. TrottG
  • 38P. NgD
  • 2W. FishD
  • 3J. BaganD
  • 23C. ScanlonD
  • 27J. ColwillM
  • 18A. RobertsonM
  • 11O. TannerM
  • 8J. MoylanM
  • 16C. WillockM
  • 9Y. SalechF
Substitutes
  • 14D. TurnbullM
  • 30H. TyrerG
  • 33R. TankiewiczM
  • 43P. MorenoM
  • 44R. KpakioD
  • 10R. ColwillM
  • 45Cian AshfordF
  • 40N. AnyadikeD
  • 50Charlie HoltM
Coach: B. Barry-Murphy

Form going into Wolves vs Cardiff

Wolves

Championship

  • W1-0Watford24 October 2026
  • D1-1Portsmouth20 October 2026

Cardiff

Championship

  • W1-0Birmingham24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Middlesbrough17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Wolves158432618+828
14Cardiff154652727018

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Wolves

Cardiff and Wolves have met 7 times in the records we hold, Wolves has won 4 of them to Cardiff's 3.

The record

Wolves won the last one 3–0 on 31 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Cardiff304712
Wolves403127

Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 31 Oct 2026
    Championship    Wolves 3–0 Cardiff
  • 2 Mar 2019
    Premier League    Wolves 2–0 Cardiff
  • 30 Nov 2018
    Premier League    Cardiff 2–1 Wolves
  • 6 Apr 2018
    Championship    Cardiff 0–1 Wolves
  • 19 Aug 2017
    Championship    Wolves 1–2 Cardiff
  • 1 Apr 2017
    Championship    Wolves 3–1 Cardiff
  • 13 Dec 2016
    Championship    Cardiff 2–1 Wolves

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Cardiff's attack rates 11% above Wolves', and Wolves concede 31% fewer than Cardiff. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Cardiff0.911.65
Wolves0.821.14

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Wolves and Cardiff

Wolves

GoalsAssists

  • Fer López63

Cardiff

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moylan103
  • Y. Salech51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Wolves beat Cardiff 3–0. The model had made a win for Wolves its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Fer López 10' for Wolves, Adam Armstrong 15' for Wolves, Ladislav Krejčí 58' for Wolves. On expected goals it finished 1.60–1.12.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Wolves a 8.0% chance to finish in the top two: 9.4% after a win, 7.5% after a draw, 5.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.4%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Wolves v Cardiff has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 49% / 26% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 27% / 29%: the biggest move is Wolves's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Wolves win44%▼ −5
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Cardiff win29%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.