AD Ceuta FC
vs
Almeria
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: AD Ceuta FC 1–2 Almeria
The model makes it 20% AD Ceuta FC, 24% draw, 56% Almeria — fair odds of 5.00, 4.17 and 1.79.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: AD Ceuta FC 1.01, Almeria 2.07.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Almeria are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. AD Ceuta FC's rating is built from 55 Segunda División matches and Almeria's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.
Key facts
- AD Ceuta FC are bottom on 5 points from 13 games; Almeria are top on 32 points from 14 games — Segunda División.
- AD Ceuta FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Cordoba.
- Almeria are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Andorra.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Almeria 4–2 AD Ceuta FC.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AD Ceuta FC vs Almeria
Has the model earned this number?
Almeria at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AD Ceuta FC vs Almeria
AD Ceuta FC
Segunda División
- L0-3away to Cordoba7 November 2026
- L0-2Sporting Gijon1 November 2026
- L1-3away to Cadiz25 October 2026
- L1-2Oviedo18 October 2026
- L1-2Sabadell10 October 2026
Almeria
Segunda División
- W2-1FC Andorra14 November 2026
- W1-0away to Girona8 November 2026
- D1-1away to Eibar31 October 2026
- D2-2Oviedo24 October 2026
- W4-2away to Real Sociedad II17 October 2026
What these results say
- AD Ceuta FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AD Ceuta FC had three goals or more.
- Almeria went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Almeria scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Almeria conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 5 |
| 1 | Almeria | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
AD Ceuta FC
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 95% today
Almeria
Chance to finish in the top two · 60% today
From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: AD Ceuta FC vs Almeria
- 1 February 2026Almeria 4–2 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
- 26 November 2025AD Ceuta FC 3–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
Leading scorers: AD Ceuta FC and Almeria
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AD Ceuta FC a 0% chance of the title and Almeria 30.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Almeria the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for AD Ceuta FC against 2.07 for Almeria. AD Ceuta FC's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.19 for Almeria.
How the model reaches 56% for Almeria to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Almeria to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, AD Ceuta FC's ratings add 13 points and Almeria's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- AD Ceuta FC's ratings43%+13
- Almeria's ratings56%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
AD Ceuta FC at home · Almeria away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: AD Ceuta FC 13, Almeria 14.
AD Ceuta FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Almeria have let in 4 there.
Almeria score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); AD Ceuta FC have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
AD Ceuta FC
- at Granada CF29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 16%
- vs Albacete6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- at Leganes13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Eibar20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
Almeria
- vs Sporting Gijon29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 54%
- at Castellón6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs Albacete13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 61%
- vs Valladolid20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 58%
- at Granada CF3 Jan · Segunda Divisiónwin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.