Regular Season - 15 · 22 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Celta de Vigo II vs Valladolid Segunda División prediction

Municipal de Barreiro, Vigo

Our model says: Celta de Vigo II 2–1 Valladolid

The model makes it 41% Celta de Vigo II, 25% draw, 34% Valladolid — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Celta de Vigo II 1.81, Valladolid 1.58.

Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Celta de Vigo II's rating is built from 13 Segunda División matches and Valladolid's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.

Key facts

  • Celta de Vigo II are 17th on 13 points from 13 games; Valladolid are 12th on 18 points from 14 games — Segunda División.
  • Celta de Vigo II are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Burgos.
  • Valladolid have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Castellón.

More Segunda División predictions

All Segunda División predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Celta de Vigo II vs Valladolid

67%
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
34%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Celta de Vigo II win Draw Valladolid win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 1–06%
  6. 2–06%
  7. 3–15%

Scores read Celta de Vigo II first; the other scorelines share the remaining 50%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Celta de Vigo II at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Celta de Vigo II vs Valladolid

Celta de Vigo II

Segunda División

  • L1-2away to Burgos7 November 2026
  • D2-2Cordoba31 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Girona24 October 2026
  • D1-1Tenerife19 October 2026
  • W4-1Real Sociedad II10 October 2026

Valladolid

Segunda División

  • L0-1Castellón14 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Sporting Gijon8 November 2026
  • W4-3Leganes2 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Granada CF23 October 2026
  • L2-3Eldense18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Celta de Vigo II scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Celta de Vigo II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Celta de Vigo II.
  • Valladolid conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Valladolid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Valladolid had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Celta de Vigo II133461925-613
12Valladolid145362221+118

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Celta de Vigo II

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 30% today

Win 26%
Draw 31%
Defeat 36%

Valladolid

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 14% today

Win 10%
Draw 14%
Defeat 16%

From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Leading scorers: Celta de Vigo II and Valladolid

Celta de Vigo II

GoalsAssists

  • A. Marin81

Valladolid

GoalsAssists

  • Adrian Arnuncio51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Valladolid (12th, with Celta de Vigo II 17th), while our numbers lean to Celta de Vigo II. Celta de Vigo II rate 0.77 in attack and 1.85 in defence, Valladolid 0.71 and 1.52 (lower is better in defence), so Celta de Vigo II have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

How the call on Celta de Vigo II v Valladolid has moved

First published on 8 Nov at 43% / 24% / 33% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 41% / 25% / 34%: the biggest move is Celta de Vigo II's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Celta de Vigo II win41%▼ −2
  2. Draw25%▲ +1
  3. Valladolid win34%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Celta de Vigo II Valladolid
0.77 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.71
1.85 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.52
1.81 Model expected goals (this match) 1.58

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Celta de Vigo II the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Celta de Vigo II against 1.58 for Valladolid. Celta de Vigo II's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.52 for Valladolid.

Celta de Vigo II carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.47 for Valladolid. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 41% for Celta de Vigo II to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Celta de Vigo II to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Celta de Vigo II's ratings take away 1 point and Valladolid's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage43%+7
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+2
  4. Celta de Vigo II's ratings44%−1
  5. Valladolid's ratings41%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Celta de Vigo IIValladolid
13Matches14
3W 4D 6LRecord5W 3D 6L
19 1.5 per gameGoals scored22 1.6 per game
25 1.9 per gameGoals conceded21 1.5 per game
2 of 13Clean sheets2 of 14
3 of 13Failed to score4 of 14
1 of 1Penalties scored0 of 1
37 2.8 per gameYellow cards43 3.1 per game
2Red cards4
3-4-3 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 5×

Celta de Vigo II at home · Valladolid away

7Played7
2W 3D 2LRecord1W 3D 3L
13–13Goals for – against7–10
0 of 7Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda División matches this season: Celta de Vigo II 13, Valladolid 14.

Celta de Vigo II scored 423406
Valladolid conceded 331462

Celta de Vigo II score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Valladolid have let in 2 there.

Valladolid scored 555511
Celta de Vigo II conceded 474622

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Celta de Vigo II

Valladolid

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.