Regular Season - 15 · 22 November 2026, 15:15 UTC

Sporting Gijon vs Las Palmas Segunda División prediction

Our model says: Sporting Gijon 1–0 Las Palmas

The model makes it 42% Sporting Gijon, 28% draw, 30% Las Palmas — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Sporting Gijon 1.52, Las Palmas 1.20.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sporting Gijon's rating is built from 56 Segunda División matches and Las Palmas's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.

Key facts

  • Sporting Gijon are 8th on 23 points from 14 games; Las Palmas are 11th on 20 points from 13 games — Segunda División.
  • Sporting Gijon have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Real Sociedad II.
  • Las Palmas are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Eldense.
  • Last 6 meetings: Las Palmas 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Las Palmas 1–0 Sporting Gijon.

More Segunda División predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Sporting Gijon vs Las Palmas

55%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Sporting Gijon win Draw Las Palmas win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–09%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 0–17%
  6. 1–27%
  7. 0–07%

Scores read Sporting Gijon first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting Gijon at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Sporting Gijon vs Las Palmas

Sporting Gijon

Segunda División

  • D2-2away to Real Sociedad II14 November 2026
  • L1-2Valladolid8 November 2026
  • W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC1 November 2026
  • L0-4away to Castellón25 October 2026
  • W2-1Albacete17 October 2026

Las Palmas

Segunda División

  • W2-0Eldense9 November 2026
  • W3-2away to Oviedo2 November 2026
  • W1-0Real Sociedad II24 October 2026
  • L0-3Castellón17 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Mallorca11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sporting Gijon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sporting Gijon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Gijon had three goals or more.
  • Las Palmas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Sporting Gijon147251617-123
11Las Palmas136251921-220

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Sporting Gijon vs Las Palmas

  • 22 March 2026Las Palmas 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
  • 2 November 2025Sporting Gijon 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
  • 26 March 2023Las Palmas 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
  • 3 December 2022Sporting Gijon 0–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
  • 29 May 2022Sporting Gijon 0–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
  • 5 December 2021Las Palmas 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sporting Gijon a 0.4% chance of the title and Las Palmas 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Sporting Gijon v Las Palmas has moved

First published on 8 Nov at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Sporting Gijon's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Sporting Gijon win42%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Las Palmas win30%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Sporting Gijon Las Palmas
0.69 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.74
1.35 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.42
1.52 Model expected goals (this match) 1.20

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sporting Gijon the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sporting Gijon against 1.20 for Las Palmas. Sporting Gijon's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.42 for Las Palmas.

Sporting Gijon carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.52 for Las Palmas. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 42% for Sporting Gijon to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sporting Gijon to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Sporting Gijon's ratings take away 1 point and Las Palmas's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage43%+7
  3. Sporting Gijon's ratings42%−1
  4. Las Palmas's ratings42%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Sporting GijonLas Palmas
14Matches13
7W 2D 5LRecord6W 2D 5L
16 1.1 per gameGoals scored19 1.5 per game
17 1.2 per gameGoals conceded21 1.6 per game
5 of 14Clean sheets5 of 13
5 of 14Failed to score2 of 13
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
41 2.9 per gameYellow cards36 2.8 per game
3Red cards2
4-4-2 9×Usual shape4-4-2 7×

Sporting Gijon at home · Las Palmas away

7Played6
3W 1D 3LRecord3W 0D 3L
7–8Goals for – against11–13
2 of 7Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda División matches this season: Sporting Gijon 14, Las Palmas 13.

Sporting Gijon scored 322234
Las Palmas conceded 350535

Sporting Gijon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Las Palmas have let in 5 there.

Las Palmas scored 251423
Sporting Gijon conceded 421406

Las Palmas score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Sporting Gijon have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Sporting Gijon

  • at Almeria29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 21%
  • vs Granada CF6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
  • at Eibar13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%
  • vs Leganes20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 51%
  • at Mallorca3 Jan · Segunda Divisiónwin 23%

Las Palmas

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.