Regular Season - 15 · 22 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Cordoba vs Oviedo Segunda División prediction

Cordoba

Our model says: Cordoba 2–1 Oviedo

The model makes it 43% Cordoba, 25% draw, 32% Oviedo — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Cordoba 1.91, Oviedo 1.58.

Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Cordoba's rating is built from 56 Segunda División matches and Oviedo's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,082 matches.

Key facts

  • Cordoba are 10th on 20 points from 14 games; Oviedo are 9th on 21 points from 14 games — Segunda División.
  • Cordoba are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-3 draw away to Mallorca.
  • Oviedo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Girona.
  • Last 6 meetings: Oviedo 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 April 2025, ended Cordoba 0–0 Oviedo.

More Segunda División predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Cordoba vs Oviedo

68%
Both teams to score
68%
Over 2.5 goals
32%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Cordoba win Draw Oviedo win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–27%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 3–16%
  6. 2–06%
  7. 1–05%

Scores read Cordoba first; the other scorelines share the remaining 51%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Cordoba at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Cordoba vs Oviedo

Cordoba

Segunda División

  • D3-3away to Mallorca14 November 2026
  • W3-0AD Ceuta FC7 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Celta de Vigo II31 October 2026
  • W2-0Eibar24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Leganes16 October 2026

Oviedo

Segunda División

  • L1-2Girona14 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Cadiz7 November 2026
  • L2-3Las Palmas2 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Almeria24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Cordoba went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Cordoba scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Oviedo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Oviedo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Oviedo had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Cordoba146262525020
9Oviedo146352018+221

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Cordoba

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 6% today

Win 4%
Draw 6%
Defeat 8%

From our Segunda División season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Cordoba vs Oviedo

  • 20 April 2025Cordoba 0–0 OviedoSegunda División
  • 21 December 2024Oviedo 2–3 CordobaSegunda División
  • 21 April 2019Oviedo 3–3 CordobaSegunda División
  • 25 August 2018Cordoba 2–4 OviedoSegunda División
  • 24 March 2018Cordoba 1–1 OviedoSegunda División
  • 22 October 2017Oviedo 2–0 CordobaSegunda División

Leading scorers: Cordoba and Oviedo

Cordoba

GoalsAssists

  • Percan63
  • Eder García42

Oviedo

GoalsAssists

  • Carlos Domínguez50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Oviedo (ninth, with Cordoba tenth), while our numbers lean to Cordoba. Cordoba rate 0.84 in attack and 1.66 in defence, Oviedo 0.79 and 1.47 (lower is better in defence), so Cordoba have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cordoba a 0.3% chance of the title and Oviedo 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Cordoba v Oviedo has moved

First published on 8 Nov at 41% / 26% / 33% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 43% / 25% / 32%: the biggest move is Cordoba's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Cordoba win43%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Oviedo win32%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Cordoba Oviedo
0.84 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.79
1.66 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.47
1.91 Model expected goals (this match) 1.58

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Cordoba the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Cordoba against 1.58 for Oviedo. Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.47 for Oviedo.

Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.54 for Oviedo. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 43% for Cordoba to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cordoba to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Cordoba's ratings change nothing and Oviedo's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage43%+7
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+2
  4. Cordoba's ratings45%±0
  5. Oviedo's ratings43%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

CordobaOviedo
14Matches14
6W 2D 6LRecord6W 3D 5L
25 1.8 per gameGoals scored20 1.4 per game
25 1.8 per gameGoals conceded18 1.3 per game
3 of 14Clean sheets5 of 14
1 of 14Failed to score3 of 14
1 of 1Penalties scored–
50 3.6 per gameYellow cards45 3.2 per game
2Red cards1
4-3-3 13×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Cordoba at home · Oviedo away

6Played7
4W 0D 2LRecord4W 1D 2L
11–8Goals for – against12–11
2 of 6Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, Segunda División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Segunda División matches this season: Cordoba 14, Oviedo 14.

Cordoba scored 642533
Oviedo conceded 061335

Cordoba score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Oviedo have let in 0 there.

Oviedo scored 333334
Cordoba conceded 442367

Oviedo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Cordoba have let in 7 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Cordoba

  • at Cadiz29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 38%
  • vs Las Palmas6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
  • vs Castellón13 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
  • at Real Sociedad II20 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
  • vs FC Andorra3 Jan · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%

Oviedo

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.