18 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

AD Ceuta FC vs Oviedo Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
Referee: J. Guzman
Full time1 – 2

Final score: AD Ceuta FC 1-2 Oviedo.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% AD Ceuta FC, 27% draw, 47% Oviedo — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Oviedo at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AD Ceuta FC0%Draw3%Oviedo97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirre
20'
Marino Illesca
22'
23'
⚽Samuel Rodríguez de la Rivaassist: David Jimenez
25'
David Jimenez
Jordi Escobar
43'
🔁Alexander Petxarroman Eizagirreout: Carlos Redruello Nimo
45'
•Kialy Abdoul Kone
53'
José Juan Romero Gil
56'
59'
🔁Víctor García Mingoout: José Luis Morales
59'
🔁David Jimenezout: Nacho Vidal
59'
🔁Alberto Reinaout: Pablo Saenz
61'
⚽Carlos Dominguez
🔁Edgar Sevikyanout: Omar Sadik
72'
🔁Kialy Abdoul Koneout: Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
72'
74'
🔁Mikel Goti Lopezout: Jacobo González
🔁José Matosout: Abraham Bueno Espinosa
81'
⚽Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
83'
84'
🔁Enzo Pérez Mirandaout: Daniel Villahermosa
Kuki Zalazar
90'
90+6'
Aritz Aldasoro
90+7'
Carlos Dominguez

Match stats — AD Ceuta FC vs Oviedo

52%Possession48%
28Shots17
7On target9
14Corners2
2.98xG2.29

Goals against chances

AD Ceuta FC1 from 2.98 xGless than the chances were worth
Oviedo2 from 2.29 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AD Ceuta FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1Pedro LópezG
  • 18Alex PetxarromanD
  • 6Carlos HernándezD
  • 4Albert CaparrósD
  • 3José MatosD
  • 32Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroM
  • 10Marino IllescasM
  • 19E. SevikyanM
  • 8KukiM
  • 22K. KonéM
  • 9Jordi EscobarF
Substitutes
  • 28Abraham Bueno EspinosaM
  • 14Y. BodigerM
  • 15JoaquínM
  • 7Alejandro Camacho RamírezM
  • 5Adrián LapeñaD
  • 20Álex MeléndezM
  • 17Mawuli MensahM
  • 16RedruD
  • 29O. SadikF
Coach: José Juan Romero
Oviedo 4-4-2
  • 13Aarón EscandellG
  • 21David JiménezD
  • 12Dani CalvoD
  • 23Carlos DomínguezD
  • 15S. RodriguezD
  • 8Mikel GotiM
  • 16Aritz AldasoroM
  • 5Y. DidiM
  • 32Enzo PerezM
  • 18V. MingoF
  • 10Alberto ReinaF
Substitutes
  • 27Samuel FranganilloG
  • 4David CostasD
  • 19B. DominguèsM
  • 30Marco EstebanD
  • 11Jacobo GonzálezF
  • 28D. MenendezM
  • 25José Luis MoralesF
  • 20Pablo SáenzF
  • 22Nacho VidalD
Coach: Julián Calero

Form going into AD Ceuta FC vs Oviedo

AD Ceuta FC

Segunda División

  • L1-2Sabadell10 October 2026

Oviedo

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Eibar12 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Eldense2 October 2026
  • W2-0Sporting Gijon27 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Sabadell20 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Valladolid13 September 2026

What these results say

  • Oviedo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Oviedo had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22AD Ceuta FC1312101030-205
9Oviedo146352018+221

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: AD Ceuta FC and Oviedo

AD Ceuta FC

GoalsAssists

  • Jordi Escobar41
  • Carlos Hernández40

Oviedo

GoalsAssists

  • Carlos Domínguez50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Oviedo won 2–1 at AD Ceuta FC. The model had made a win for Oviedo its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Samuel Rodríguez de la Riva 23' for Oviedo, Carlos Dominguez 61' for Oviedo, Alejandro Camacho Ramírez 83' for AD Ceuta FC. On expected goals it finished 2.98–2.29.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AD Ceuta FC a 57.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 50.8% after a win, 57.0% after a draw, 62.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.0%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

For Oviedo the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 20.6% going in: 23.2% after a win, 18.6% after a draw, 16.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.2%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AD Ceuta FC v Oviedo has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 28% / 28% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 26% / 27% / 47%: the biggest move is Oviedo's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. AD Ceuta FC win26%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Oviedo win47%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.