Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Karpaty 2-2 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Karpaty, 23% draw, 15% Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Karpaty at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Line-ups
- 80R. MysakG
- 14Iván CaleroD
- 4V. BabogloD
- 47Jean PedrosoD
- 73R. LyakhD
- 10MohaM
- 70Xeber AlkainM
- 8A. ChachuaM
- 7Fellipe VieiraM
- 17R. VantukhM
- 9J. SéryF
- 28O. DyedovF
- 21Bruno IglesiasM
- 11D. MiroshnichenkoD
- 22Y. KokodynyakD
- 59E. KalinetsD
- 55T. StetskovD
- 1D. MarchenkoG
- 30Sviatoslav HliotsD
- 36A. ZhylkinG
- 71N. FedotovG
- 13S. RepajD
- 4V. MorozD
- 77Nil CochD
- 97O. KlymetsD
- 5Y. ZaporozhetsM
- 20V. SydunM
- 27D. VashchenkoM
- 8M. MyronyukM
- 59A. KozakM
- 99Carlos RojasF
- 31O. BilykG
- 7V. LuchkevychD
- 3S. GrygorashchukD
- 28A. LipovuzM
- 17Ivan BenderaM
- 11A. BoykoD
- 25vitalii horinD
- 21NeneF
- 14Raúl TavaresM
Form going into Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Karpaty
Premier League
- L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv11 October 2026
- D1-1Veres Rivne20 September 2026
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Premier League
- L1-3away to Kolos Kovalivka10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ukraine Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Karpaty | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 19 |
| 10 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Karpaty vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
- 19 April 2026Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0–0 KarpatyPremier League
- 19 October 2025Karpaty 1–3 Epitsentr DunayivtsiPremier League
- 5 November 2023Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3–2 KarpatyPersha Liga
- 2 September 2023Karpaty 2–0 Epitsentr DunayivtsiPersha Liga
- 11 November 2022Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–0 KarpatyPersha Liga
- 24 September 2022Karpaty 0–2 Epitsentr DunayivtsiPersha Liga
Leading scorers: Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Karpaty
GoalsAssists
- Y. Kostenko50
- Xeber Alkain22
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
GoalsAssists
- A. Kozak33
- V. Sydun30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Karpaty and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Karpaty at 62% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Artem Kozak 15' for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, Rostyslav Lyakh 35' for Karpaty, Carlos Humberto Rojas Mosquera 39' for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, Xeber Alkain Mitxelena 90+4' for Karpaty.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Karpaty a 55.5% chance to finish in the top four: 58.8% after a win, 49.2% after a draw, 44.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 49.2%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.
For Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 28.1% going in: 17.2% after a win, 25.7% after a draw, 30.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 25.7%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Karpaty v Epitsentr Dunayivtsi has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 56% / 25% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 62% / 23% / 15%: the biggest move is Karpaty's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Karpaty win62%▲ +6
- Draw23%▼ −2
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win15%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.