18 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Burgos vs Sabadell Segunda División prediction & result

Burgos
Referee: M. Perez
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Burgos 1-0 Sabadell.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Burgos, 34% draw, 29% Sabadell — fair odds of 2.70, 2.94 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Burgos at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Burgos98%Draw2%Sabadell0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alejandro Lizancos Saldaña
4'
Grego Sierra
13'
29'
Óscar Sanz
Sergio Francisco
31'
🔁David Gonzalezout: Curro
34'
🔁Kevin Appinout: Alberto Dadie
45'
•Curro
62'
⚽Curro (pen)
63'
64'
🔁Pere Ponsout: Eneko Aguilar
64'
🔁Ton Ripollout: Yanis Rahmani
64'
🔁José Luis Catalàout: Gastón Joaquín Valles Velázquez
🔁Jon Karrikaburuout: Álex Forés
75'
🔁Javier Llabrés Expositoout: Victor Mollejo
76'
78'
🔁Joel Priegoout: Alain Ribeiro
78'
🔁Quadri Liameedout: Nikolay Obolskiy
🔁Pablo Galdamesout: José Gragera
79'

Match stats — Burgos vs Sabadell

63%Possession37%
13Shots7
7On target2
10Corners3
2.22xG0.51

Goals against chances

Burgos1 from 2.22 xGless than the chances were worth
Sabadell0 from 0.51 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Burgos 4-2-3-1
  • 13Ander CanteroG
  • 2ÁlexD
  • 15Oier LuengoD
  • 8GregoD
  • 22Brais MartínezD
  • 12Unai VencedorM
  • 4P. GaldamesM
  • 10K. AppinM
  • 14David GonzálezM
  • 19Javi LlabrésM
  • 7Jon KarrikaburuF
Substitutes
  • 23Alberto DadieD
  • 9Álex ForésF
  • 21Fermin GarciaF
  • 6Sergio GonzálezD
  • 20José GrageraM
  • 1Bruno IribarneG
  • 36I. MartinezD
  • 11Víctor MollejoF
  • 16Curro SánchezM
Coach: Sergio Francisco
Sabadell 3-1-4-2
  • 1Diego FuoliG
  • 27José Luis CatalàD
  • 14Óscar SanzD
  • 5Arthur BonaldoD
  • 20UrriM
  • 7Ton RipollM
  • 22Q. LiameedM
  • 8Pere PonsM
  • 2PipaM
  • 23J. PriegoF
  • 10Ángel BaenaF
Substitutes
  • 25Marc VidalG
  • 12Gastón VallesF
  • 33Joaquim Utgés AlmedaF
  • 21Alain RibeiroM
  • 19Y. RahmaniF
  • 13J. OrtegaG
  • 9N. ObolskiyF
  • 18Y. OwusuM
  • 15Kaiser LázaroD
Coach: Ferran Costa

Form going into Burgos vs Sabadell

Burgos

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Granada CF12 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Almeria3 October 2026
  • W1-0Eldense27 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Las Palmas20 September 2026
  • W3-1AD Ceuta FC11 September 2026

Sabadell

Segunda División

  • W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Burgos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Burgos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Burgos147342017+324
13Sabadell134631211+118

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Burgos and Sabadell

Burgos

GoalsAssists

  • Álex Forés41

Sabadell

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Burgos beat Sabadell 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Burgos at 37%. The goal: Curro (penalty) 63' for Burgos. On expected goals it finished 2.22–0.51.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Burgos a 11.5% chance to finish in the top four: 15.0% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 8.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.0%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.

For Sabadell the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 24.4% going in: 30.5% after a win, 23.6% after a draw, 20.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.1%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Burgos v Sabadell has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 39% / 32% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 37% / 34% / 29%: the biggest move is Burgos's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Burgos win37%▼ −2
  2. Draw34%▲ +2
  3. Sabadell win29%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.