16 August 2026, 12:30 UTC

Twente vs PEC Zwolle Eredivisie prediction & result

De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
Full time3 1

Final score: Twente 3-1 PEC Zwolle.

Before kick-off the model made it 69% Twente, 17% draw, 14% PEC Zwolle — fair odds of 1.45, 5.88 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Twente at 69% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
E. Sorensenassist: T. Oosting
D. Weidmannassist: S. Orjasaeter
38'
D. Mbayo (OG)
59'
65'
🔁T. Oostingout: G. Reiziger
66'
🔁E. Sorensenout: O. Velanas
66'
🔁D. Mbayoout: I. Cissoko
🔁B. van Rooijout: G. Peixoto
69'
🔁M. Pjacaout: K. Hlynsson
69'
D. Rotsassist: R. Zerrouki
69'
78'
🔁R. Thomasout: N. Fichtinger
🔁S. Orjasaeterout: F. Thorvaldsen
80'
🔁D. Weidmannout: T. van den Belt
80'
🔁W. Weghorstout: S. Lammers
82'
84'
🔁D. van der Haarout: T. Velthuis

Match stats — Twente vs PEC Zwolle

69%Possession31%
27Shots8
10On target3
6Corners3
2.11xG0.68

Goals against chances

Twente3 from 2.11 xGmore than the chances were worth
PEC Zwolle1 from 0.68 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Twente 4-2-3-1
  • 1Lars UnnerstallG
  • 28Bart van RooijD
  • 3Robin PröpperD
  • 43Ruud NijstadD
  • 29Aske AdelgaardD
  • 6Ramiz ZerroukiM
  • 42Daouda WeidmannM
  • 7Marko PjacaM
  • 11Daan RotsM
  • 27Sondre ØrjasæterM
  • 9Wout WeghorstF
Substitutes
  • 12Guilherme PeixotoD
  • 14Kristian HlynssonM
  • 20Thomas Van den BeltM
  • 17Filip ThorvaldsenF
  • 10Sam LammersF
  • 22Remko PasveerG
  • 16Joël DrommelG
  • 24Krzysztof KurowskiD
  • 4Mathias KjøløM
Coach: John van den Brom
PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1
  • 1Jasper SchendelaarG
  • 3Olivier AertssenD
  • 28Simon GravesD
  • 24Nick ViergeverD
  • 33Damian van der HaarD
  • 30Ryan ThomasM
  • 8Tobias SommerM
  • 11Dylan MbayoM
  • 25Thijs OostingM
  • 9Elias SørensenM
  • 10Koen KostonsF
Substitutes
  • 20Gabriel ReizigerM
  • 22Ibrahim CissokoF
  • 18Odysseus VelanasM
  • 34Nick FichtingerM
  • 4Tijs VelthuisD
  • 41Duke VerduinG
  • 16Tom de GraaffG
  • 6Jan BürgerD
  • 42Dylan RuwardD
Coach: Henry Van Der Vegt

Form going into Twente vs PEC Zwolle

Twente

  • D3-3away to Dunajska Streda13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Heerenveen9 August 2026
  • W6-0Dunajska Streda6 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Ferencvarosi TC30 July 2026
  • L1-2Ferencvarosi TC23 July 2026

PEC Zwolle

  • L0-2Ajax9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Twente6411125+713
16PEC Zwolle6114617-114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Twente vs PEC Zwolle

  • 16 August 2026Twente 3–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • 10 January 2026Twente 1–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • 10 August 2025PEC Zwolle 1–0 TwenteEredivisie
  • 13 April 2025PEC Zwolle 1–1 TwenteEredivisie
  • 14 September 2024Twente 1–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • 19 May 2024PEC Zwolle 1–2 TwenteEredivisie
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.