Twente vs PEC Zwolle Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Twente 3-1 PEC Zwolle.
Before kick-off the model made it 69% Twente, 17% draw, 14% PEC Zwolle — fair odds of 1.45, 5.88 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Twente at 69% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Twente vs PEC Zwolle
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Lars UnnerstallG
- 28Bart van RooijD
- 3Robin PröpperD
- 43Ruud NijstadD
- 29Aske AdelgaardD
- 6Ramiz ZerroukiM
- 42Daouda WeidmannM
- 7Marko PjacaM
- 11Daan RotsM
- 27Sondre ØrjasæterM
- 9Wout WeghorstF
- 12Guilherme PeixotoD
- 14Kristian HlynssonM
- 20Thomas Van den BeltM
- 17Filip ThorvaldsenF
- 10Sam LammersF
- 22Remko PasveerG
- 16Joël DrommelG
- 24Krzysztof KurowskiD
- 4Mathias KjøløM
- 1Jasper SchendelaarG
- 3Olivier AertssenD
- 28Simon GravesD
- 24Nick ViergeverD
- 33Damian van der HaarD
- 30Ryan ThomasM
- 8Tobias SommerM
- 11Dylan MbayoM
- 25Thijs OostingM
- 9Elias SørensenM
- 10Koen KostonsF
- 20Gabriel ReizigerM
- 22Ibrahim CissokoF
- 18Odysseus VelanasM
- 34Nick FichtingerM
- 4Tijs VelthuisD
- 41Duke VerduinG
- 16Tom de GraaffG
- 6Jan BürgerD
- 42Dylan RuwardD
Form going into Twente vs PEC Zwolle
Twente
- D3-3away to Dunajska Streda13 August 2026
- L0-1away to Heerenveen9 August 2026
- W6-0Dunajska Streda6 August 2026
- D2-2away to Ferencvarosi TC30 July 2026
- L1-2Ferencvarosi TC23 July 2026
PEC Zwolle
- L0-2Ajax9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Twente | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Twente vs PEC Zwolle
- 16 August 2026Twente 3–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 10 January 2026Twente 1–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 10 August 2025PEC Zwolle 1–0 TwenteEredivisie
- 13 April 2025PEC Zwolle 1–1 TwenteEredivisie
- 14 September 2024Twente 1–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 19 May 2024PEC Zwolle 1–2 TwenteEredivisie