18 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie prediction & result

Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
Referee: Alex Bos
Full time2 – 2

Final score: NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Fortuna Sittard.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% NEC Nijmegen, 24% draw, 26% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NEC Nijmegen at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NEC Nijmegen0%Draw6%Fortuna Sittard94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
⚽Anthony Descotteassist: Rodrigo Guth
⚽Kevin Kersassist: Dennis Geiger
28'
38'
Shiloh 't Zand
45'
🔁Sven Simonsout: Kristoffer Peterson
48'
⚽Anthony Descotteassist: Shiloh 't Zand
54'
Rodrigo Guth
🔁Kevin Kersout: Adam Tahaui
63'
🔁Deveron Fonvilleout: Mitchel Bakker
63'
🔁Noe Lebretonout: Kaj Sierhuis
63'
70'
🔁Lequincio Zeefuikout: Daley Sinkgraven
81'
🔁Shiloh 't Zandout: Siebe Wylin
🔁Jamiro Monteiroout: Perr Schuurs
84'
🔁Tobias Stormout: Willum Thor Willumsson
84'
86'
🔁Syb Van Otteleout: Nick de Groot
•Kaj Sierhuis
88'
⚽Mitchel Bakker (pen)
90'
⚽Willum Thor Willumssonassist: Perr Schuurs
90+3'

Match stats — NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard

74%Possession26%
24Shots5
7On target3
13Corners0
3.06xG0.45

Goals against chances

NEC Nijmegen2 from 3.06 xGless than the chances were worth
Fortuna Sittard2 from 0.45 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. CrettazG
  • 21T. StormD
  • 22A. KaplanD
  • 24Deveron FonvilleD
  • 34Kevin KersM
  • 6D. NejašmićM
  • 18D. GeigerM
  • 35Jamiro MonteiroM
  • 20N. LebretonM
  • 99Clement BischoffM
  • 30B. LinssenF
Substitutes
  • 5M. BakkerD
  • 11W. WillumssonM
  • 19Adam TahauiF
  • 73Gabriel BrásD
  • 9T. CheryM
  • 38Joep GenesteG
  • 8I. Hansen-AarøenM
  • 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
  • 42Y. MoslihD
Coach: Dick Schreuder
Fortuna Sittard 5-3-2
  • 31M. BranderhorstG
  • 12Ivo PintoD
  • 6S. van OtteleD
  • 3Rodrigo GuthD
  • 23P. BrittijnD
  • 28Justin Quincy HubnerD
  • 14S. SimonsM
  • 20É. MichutM
  • 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t ZandM
  • 9A. DescotteF
  • 25L. ZeefuikF
Substitutes
  • 24D. SinkgravenD
  • 7K. PetersonF
  • 1L. KoopmansG
  • 33K. ReitmaierG
  • 38Moussa GbemouM
  • 15N. de GrootD
  • 39Ganni BuyukhanM
  • 52M. IhattarenM
  • 2S. WylinD
Coach: D. Buijs

Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard

NEC Nijmegen

Eredivisie

  • D1-1away to Ajax10 October 2026

Fortuna Sittard

Eredivisie

  • D1-1Twente10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11NEC Nijmegen123542021-114
7Fortuna Sittard125522020020

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard

  • 28 February 2026NEC Nijmegen 2–3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • 31 August 2025Fortuna Sittard 3–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 19 January 2025NEC Nijmegen 4–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
  • 31 August 2024Fortuna Sittard 0–3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 2 April 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
  • 15 December 2023NEC Nijmegen 4–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie

The full NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard record →

The result against the call

NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for NEC Nijmegen at 50% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Anthony Descotte 18' for Fortuna Sittard, Kevin Kers 28' for NEC Nijmegen, Anthony Descotte 48' for Fortuna Sittard, Willum Thor Willumsson 90+3' for NEC Nijmegen. On expected goals it finished 3.06–0.45.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NEC Nijmegen a 3.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.9% after a win, 4.2% after a draw, 5.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 4.2%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.

For Fortuna Sittard the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 3.9% going in: 5.7% after a win, 3.3% after a draw, 2.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 3.3%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 24% / 26%: the biggest move is NEC Nijmegen's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. NEC Nijmegen win50%▲ +4
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Fortuna Sittard win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.