17 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Emmen vs Almere City FC Eerste Divisie prediction & result

De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Emmen 2-1 Almere City FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Emmen, 27% draw, 41% Almere City FC — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Almere City FC at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Emmen95%Draw5%Almere City FC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jack Cooper Love
7'
⚽Jack Cooper Loveassist: Freddy Quispel
25'
28'
Joey Jacobs
30'
Emanuel Poku
Jack Cooper Love
33'
45'
🔁Milan de Haanout: Mees Hoedemakers
45'
🔁Emanuel Pokuout: Jochem Ritmeester Van De Kamp
45'
🔁Martin Jean Wasinskiout: H. el Dahri
🔁Sybrand Veldhuisout: Stan van Manen
72'
🔁Freddy Quispelout: Daan Lambers
72'
72'
🔁Jamie Jacobsout: Byron Burgering
72'
🔁Tiziano vianelloout: Teun Bijleveld
Stan van Manen
74'
77'
⚽Ferdy Druijfassist: H. el Dahri
🔁Torben Rheinout: Luca Denk
84'
86'
Mees Hoedemakers
🔁Michael Breijout: V Carus
90+3'

Match stats — Emmen vs Almere City FC

49%Possession51%
20Shots17
6On target8
8Corners3
3.67xG2.22

Goals against chances

Emmen2 from 3.67 xGless than the chances were worth
Almere City FC1 from 2.22 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Emmen 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. KarssiesG
  • 24L. EverinkD
  • 25R. KongoloD
  • 3Y. Dede-LhommeD
  • 17B. Van HoveD
  • 21A. HojabrpourM
  • 7T. RheinM
  • 40S. VeldhuisM
  • 12F. QuispelM
  • 22M. BreijM
  • 9J. CooperF
Substitutes
  • 8L. DenkM
  • 18V. CarusD
  • 2J. MukehD
  • 27J. HuijzerM
  • 38Kevin NorderG
  • 33K. RoosG
  • 15C. SunderM
  • 14Stan van ManenF
  • 4C. ØstergaardD
Coach: M. van Dam
Almere City FC 4-3-3
  • 1Wessel SpeelG
  • 2M. WasinskiD
  • 3J. JacobsD
  • 44D. van BruggenD
  • 16Tiziano vianelloD
  • 6E. CornelisseM
  • 10J. JacobsM
  • 8M. de HaanM
  • 17E. PokuF
  • 9F. DruijfF
  • 11M. DorsF
Substitutes
  • 20J. KalisvaartM
  • 23J. Ritmeester van de KampM
  • 22E. van de BlaakD
  • 31J. van der MarkG
  • 30J. van der WiltG
  • 26Twan·Van Der ZeeuwD
  • 4J. LawrenceD
  • 18Bas HuismanF
  • 14M. HoedemakersM
Coach: Anoush Dastgir

Form going into Emmen vs Almere City FC

Emmen

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to Dordrecht9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Waalwijk3 October 2026

Almere City FC

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0FC Eindhoven9 October 2026
  • W1-0FC Volendam3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Emmen158162830-225
2Almere City FC1510143615+2131

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Emmen vs Almere City FC

  • 1 August 2026Emmen 4–0 Almere City FCFriendlies Clubs
  • 20 December 2025Almere City FC 4–2 EmmenEerste Divisie
  • 17 August 2025Emmen 1–4 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 11 June 2023Emmen 1–2 Almere City FCEredivisie
  • 6 June 2023Almere City FC 2–0 EmmenEredivisie

Leading scorers: Emmen and Almere City FC

Emmen

GoalsAssists

  • J. Cooper113
  • F. Quispel72

Almere City FC

GoalsAssists

  • F. Druijf103
  • M. Dors54

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Emmen beat Almere City FC 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Almere City FC at 41% and given a win for Emmen 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jack Cooper Love 7' for Emmen, Jack Cooper Love 25' for Emmen, Ferdy Druijf 77' for Almere City FC. On expected goals it finished 3.67–2.22.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Emmen a 17.3% chance to finish in the top four: 21.3% after a win, 16.0% after a draw, 13.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.3%, 4 points higher than before the match.

For Almere City FC the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 71.9% going in: 77.8% after a win, 71.0% after a draw, 66.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.9%, 5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.