7 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

PAU vs Nantes Ligue 2 prediction & result

Nouste Camp, Pau
Referee: Antoine Valnet
Full time0 – 2

Final score: PAU 0-2 Nantes.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% PAU, 26% draw, 25% Nantes — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

PAU at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PAU0%Draw1%Nantes99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
🔁Thomas Robinetout: Louis Leroux
Cheikh Fall
27'
28'
⚽Killian Corredor (pen)
43'
Mathieu Cafaro
Babacar Leye
45+2'
Anthony Briançon
45+2'
🔁Axel Bambaout: Rony Mimb Baheng
45'
🔁Lorenzo Rajotout: Jeremy Sebas
45'
51'
⚽Louis Lerouxassist: Killian Corredor
55'
Louis Leroux
Anthony Briançon
55'
59'
Fabien Centonze
62'
🔁Mathieu Cafaroout: Amin Cherni
62'
🔁Fabien Centonzeout: Fode Doucoure
65'
Grégory Poirier
66'
Fode Doucoure
🔁Babacar Leyeout: Bilal Brahimi
71'
🔁Souleymane Basseout: Abdel Hakim Abdallah
71'
🔁Cheikh Fallout: Tom Saettel
78'
82'
🔁Killian Corredorout: Dehmaine Tabibou
82'
🔁Igniatius Ganagoout: Antoine Joujou
Abdel Hakim Abdallah
88'

Match stats — PAU vs Nantes

63%Possession37%
11Shots9
3On target4
2Corners3
0.61xG1.6

Goals against chances

PAU0 from 0.61 xGless than the chances were worth
Nantes2 from 1.60 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

PAU 5-3-2
  • 1B. MaubleuG
  • 39M. TourraineD
  • 29G. PaquiezD
  • 23A. BriançonD
  • 88A. BambaD
  • 8S. BasseD
  • 6C. FallM
  • 21J. BenetM
  • 5L. RajotM
  • 7H. BenaliF
  • 9B. LeyeF
Substitutes
  • 22R. BahengD
  • 56Abdoulaye MbayeF
  • 4A. DodoteD
  • 19T. SaettelF
  • 30E. SallesG
  • 18J. SebasF
  • 25Q. DaubinM
  • 10B. BrahimiM
  • 97A. AbdallahD
Coach: Thierry Debes
Nantes 3-4-3
  • 30P. CarlgrenG
  • 24F. GuilbertD
  • 5L. PerrinD
  • 98K. AmianD
  • 18F. CentonzeM
  • 44B. PierretM
  • 8J. LepenantM
  • 20M. CafaroM
  • 12K. CorredorF
  • 27T. RobinetF
  • 37I. GanagoF
Substitutes
  • 23W. YounoussaM
  • 75A. CherniD
  • 13F. DoucouréD
  • 1M. DupéG
  • 7A. JoujouF
  • 19Louis LerouxM
  • 46E. MongoD
  • 28I. SissokoM
  • 17D. AssoumaniM
Coach: Grégory Poirier

Form going into PAU vs Nantes

PAU

Ligue 2

  • W3-1away to Metz30 October 2026
  • W2-1Grenoble23 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Guingamp16 October 2026
  • W3-2Laval9 October 2026

Nantes

Ligue 2

  • D1-1Clermont Foot30 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Saint Etienne24 October 2026
  • L2-3Dunkerque17 October 2026
  • D0-0Reims10 October 2026

What these results say

  • PAU won every one of these 4 matches.
  • PAU scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • PAU conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Nantes did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Nantes conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Nantes had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5PAU126241613+320
14Nantes123361418-412

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PAU vs Nantes

  • 5 January 2024PAU 1–4 NantesCoupe de France

Leading scorers: PAU and Nantes

PAU

GoalsAssists

  • B. Leye41

Nantes

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nantes won 2–0 at PAU. The model had leaned towards a win for PAU at 49% and given a win for Nantes 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Killian Corredor (penalty) 28' for Nantes, Louis Leroux 51' for Nantes. Sent off: Anthony Briançon (PAU) 55', Fode Doucoure (Nantes) 66'. On expected goals it finished 0.61–1.60.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave PAU a 8.1% chance to finish in the top two: 9.3% after a win, 6.7% after a draw, 5.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.8%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.

For Nantes the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 44.5% going in: 34.8% after a win, 45.1% after a draw, 48.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.8%, 9.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on PAU v Nantes has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 49% / 26% / 25%: the biggest move is PAU's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. PAU win49%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Nantes win25%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.