7 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Clermont Foot vs Rodez Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand
Referee: Henry Gabriel
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Clermont Foot 1-0 Rodez.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Clermont Foot, 28% draw, 37% Rodez — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rodez at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Clermont Foot96%Draw4%Rodez0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ivan M'Bahia
24'
Adrien Hunou
27'
Maïdine Douane
40'
43'
Steven Luyambula Biwa
54'
Jordan Mendes
59'
Mathis Saka
Vital N'Simba
60'
60'
Kenny Nagera
🔁Maïdine Douaneout: Enzo Cantero
61'
🔁Adrien Hunouout: Luís Semedo
62'
66'
🔁Kenny Nageraout: Nachon Nsingi
66'
🔁Mathis Sakaout: Octave Joly
76'
🔁Ryan Pontiout: Jean Lambert Evan's
76'
🔁Steven Luyambula Biwaout: Corentin Issanchou Roubiou
⚽Florian Bianchiniassist: Vital N'Simba
76'
🔁Salomon Sambiaout: Jean Grillot
82'
88'
🔁Antonin Cartillierout: Mathis Touho

Match stats — Clermont Foot vs Rodez

64%Possession36%
12Shots9
4On target2
4Corners6
1.25xG0.74

Goals against chances

Clermont Foot1 from 1.25 xGabout what the chances were worth
Rodez0 from 0.74 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Clermont Foot 3-4-3
  • 30T. GuivarchG
  • 28I. M'BahiaD
  • 21Y. SalmierD
  • 4E. KabeyaD
  • 93I. CoulibalyM
  • 26R. KouaméM
  • 10J. SambiaM
  • 12V. N'SimbaM
  • 23A. HunouF
  • 7F. BianchiniF
  • 11M. DouaneF
Substitutes
  • 13J. AsticM
  • 22Marouane AdmarM
  • 44A. AckraM
  • 77E. CanteroF
  • 17O. DiopF
  • 5J. GrillotM
  • 6E. KonéM
  • 16M. NdiayeG
  • 9Luís SemedoF
Coach: David Guion
Rodez 5-3-2
  • 1Q. BraatG
  • 28S. Luyambula BiwaD
  • 24L. QuenabioD
  • 4M. MagninD
  • 3R. LipinskiD
  • 20R. PontiD
  • 29Antonin CartillierM
  • 6J. MendesM
  • 10M. SakaM
  • 7K. NageraF
  • 21K. NsonaF
Substitutes
  • 8D. PavlovićM
  • 9N. NsingiF
  • 16L. MargueronG
  • 22O. JolyM
  • 15E. Jean-LambertD
  • 13C. RoubiouD
  • 11M. TouhoF
Coach: D. Santini

Form going into Clermont Foot vs Rodez

Clermont Foot

Ligue 2

  • D1-1away to Nantes30 October 2026
  • L0-2Guingamp23 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Laval16 October 2026
  • L2-3RED Star FC 9310 October 2026

Rodez

Ligue 2

  • W1-0Dunkerque30 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Dijon24 October 2026
  • L0-3Montpellier19 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Saint Etienne10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Clermont Foot did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Clermont Foot conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Clermont Foot scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Rodez conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Clermont Foot121831115-411
13Rodez124171723-613

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Clermont Foot vs Rodez

  • 13 February 2026Clermont Foot 1–2 RodezLigue 2
  • 19 September 2025Rodez 0–1 Clermont FootLigue 2
  • 22 July 2025Clermont Foot 2–1 RodezFriendlies Clubs
  • 10 May 2025Rodez 1–1 Clermont FootLigue 2
  • 13 December 2024Clermont Foot 1–1 RodezLigue 2

Leading scorers: Clermont Foot and Rodez

Clermont Foot

GoalsAssists

  • F. Bianchini41

Rodez

GoalsAssists

  • I. Baldé50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Clermont Foot beat Rodez 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Rodez at 37% and given a win for Clermont Foot 35%. The goal: Florian Bianchini 76' for Clermont Foot. On expected goals it finished 1.25–0.74.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Clermont Foot a 50.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 41.2% after a win, 52.0% after a draw, 57.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.2%, 9 points lower than before the match.

For Rodez the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.7% going in: 5.4% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 11.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.1%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Clermont Foot v Rodez has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 40% / 27% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 35% / 28% / 37%: the biggest move is Clermont Foot's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Clermont Foot win35%▼ −5
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Rodez win37%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.