7 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

ADT vs Sporting Cristal Primera División prediction & result

Tarma
Referee: Jordi Espinoza
Full time1 – 1

Final score: ADT 1-1 Sporting Cristal.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% ADT, 26% draw, 45% Sporting Cristal — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sporting Cristal at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

ADT0%Draw4%Sporting Cristal96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Horacio Benincasa
33'
42'
Luis Abram
45+2'
⚽Hernán Barcosassist: Santiago González
🔁Said Peraltaout: Victor Cedron
64'
72'
🔁Hernán Barcosout: Michael Hoyos
72'
🔁Leandro Sosaout: Catriel Cabellos
75'
🔁Santiago Gonzálezout: Martín Távara
🔁Joao Rojasout: Jhojan Garcilazo
77'
79'
Leonardo Diaz Laffore
84'
Juan Gonzalez
88'
🔁Leonardo Diaz Lafforeout: Gabriel
88'
🔁Yoshimar Yotúnout: Juan Manuel Cuesta
Victor Cedron
88'
🔁Angel Ojedaout: Aylton Mazzo
88'
⚽Horacio Benincasaassist: Alejandro Ramos
90+4'

Match stats — ADT vs Sporting Cristal

48%Possession52%
9Shots9
5On target4
5Corners6
0.55xG0.39

Goals against chances

ADT1 from 0.55 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sporting Cristal1 from 0.39 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

ADT 4-2-3-1
  • 33C. SolísG
  • 98A. RamosD
  • 99J. PereyraD
  • 44H. BenincasaD
  • 59O. NúñezD
  • 16L. PérezM
  • 6Á. OjedaM
  • 77Juan David Lucumí CueroM
  • 7J. RojasM
  • 22A. RodríguezM
  • 24S. PeraltaF
Substitutes
  • 32J. BaumanF
  • 10V. CedrónM
  • 26Jhojan GarcilazoF
  • 18Aylton MazzoF
  • 35E. MoriG
  • 15Josué AlvinoM
  • 31J. NavarroD
  • 3L. RugelD
  • 28J. SotoD
Coach: V. Rivera
Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. EnríquezG
  • 8L. SosaD
  • 18J. GonzálezD
  • 96L. AbramD
  • 32L. DíazD
  • 6A. ÁlvarezM
  • 19Y. YotúnM
  • 7S. GonzálezM
  • 16L. IbericoM
  • 23M. CastroM
  • 29H. BarcosF
Substitutes
  • 11I. ÁvilaF
  • 33C. BautistaG
  • 21C. CabellosM
  • 77J. CuestaF
  • 22M. HoyosM
  • 27GabrielM
  • 25G. TávaraM
  • 4A. VillacortaD
  • 26I. WisdomM
Coach: R. Mosquera

Form going into ADT vs Sporting Cristal

ADT

Primera División

  • D2-2away to Comerciantes Unidos3 November 2026
  • W2-0UCV Moquegua28 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Atletico Grau23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas16 October 2026

Sporting Cristal

Primera División

  • W5-0FC Cajamarca2 November 2026
  • W3-2Alianza Lima29 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Cusco24 October 2026
  • W4-2Comerciantes Unidos18 October 2026

What these results say

  • ADT scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • ADT failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • ADT conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sporting Cristal scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Sporting Cristal had three goals or more.
  • Sporting Cristal won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15ADT33711153648-1231
5Sporting Cristal33156126348+1551

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: ADT vs Sporting Cristal

  • 1 October 2026Sporting Cristal 5–0 ADTCopa De La Liga
  • 27 September 2026ADT 0–1 Sporting CristalCopa De La Liga
  • 24 May 2026Sporting Cristal 2–1 ADTPrimera División
  • 4 October 2025ADT 3–2 Sporting CristalPrimera División
  • 17 May 2025Sporting Cristal 2–1 ADTPrimera División
  • 12 July 2024ADT 3–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División

Leading scorers: ADT and Sporting Cristal

ADT

No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.

Sporting Cristal

GoalsAssists

  • H. Barcos134
  • L. Iberico110

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

ADT and Sporting Cristal drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sporting Cristal at 45% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Hernán Barcos 45+2' for Sporting Cristal, Horacio Benincasa 90+4' for ADT. On expected goals it finished 0.55–0.39.

How the call on ADT v Sporting Cristal has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 27% / 27% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 29% / 26% / 45%: the biggest move is ADT's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. ADT win29%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Sporting Cristal win45%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.