7 November 2026, 20:30 UTC

Everton de Vina vs Concepción Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Sausalito, Vina del Mar
Referee: Nicolas Gamboa Reyes
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Everton de Vina 0-2 Concepción.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Everton de Vina, 28% draw, 27% Concepción — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Everton de Vina at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Everton de Vina0%Draw1%Concepción99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
Ariel Cáceres
35'
Misael Dávila
53'
🔁Matías Cavalleriout: Aldrix Jara
🔁Braian Aaron Martínezout: Nicolás Baeza
56'
🔁Óscar Opazoout: Lucas Soto
56'
64'
Y. Rodríguez
Lucas Soto
67'
72'
🔁Ariel Cáceresout: Jorge Henríquez
72'
⚽Aldrix Jaraassist: Joaquín Larrivey
🔁Emiliano Ramosout: Cristian Palacios
77'
🔁Joaquin Moyaout: Gustavo Charrupi
77'
84'
⚽Jorge Henríquezassist: Ethan Espinoza
🔁Julian Alfaroout: Bastián Ismael Tapia Gomes
86'
87'
🔁Ethan Espinozaout: Joaquín Montecinos
Alan Medina
88'
Bastián Ismael Tapia Gomes
90+5'

Match stats — Everton de Vina vs Concepción

60%Possession40%
18Shots12
2On target3
3Corners3
0.88xG0.84

Goals against chances

Everton de Vina0 from 0.88 xGless than the chances were worth
Concepción2 from 0.84 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Everton de Vina 4-3-3
  • 1I. GonzálezG
  • 2Ó. OpazoD
  • 4H. MagallanesD
  • 24D. OyarzúnD
  • 11E. RamosD
  • 21B. BerríosM
  • 7J. MoyaM
  • 10A. MedinaM
  • 20J. OvalleF
  • 9J. AlfaroF
  • 29B. MartínezF
Substitutes
  • 5R. GonzálezD
  • 6G. CharrupíF
  • 14N. BaezaD
  • 25E. KirkmanG
  • 30C. PalaciosF
  • 8L. SotoM
  • 39Bastián Ismael Tapia GomesF
  • 19V. VegaD
  • 37V. VidalD
Coach: W. Ribonetto
Concepción 4-3-3
  • 25N. ArayaG
  • 28M. GonzálezD
  • 21N. RodríguezD
  • 37F. GrilloD
  • 23C. RiquelmeD
  • 18Y. RodríguezM
  • 22M. DávilaM
  • 24M. CavalleriM
  • 4A. CáceresF
  • 32J. LarriveyF
  • 30E. EspinozaF
Substitutes
  • 12N. VelosoG
  • 3D. CarrascoD
  • 9C. EscobarF
  • 20J. HenríquezM
  • 19A. JaraF
  • 14S. A. Espinoza OlaveM
  • 8F. MartínezM
  • 15J. MontecinosF
  • 29D. VarasD
Coach: Fernando Díaz

Form going into Everton de Vina vs Concepción

Everton de Vina

Primera División

  • D2-2away to Cobresal1 November 2026
  • L1-4away to Universidad de Chile26 October 2026
  • W3-2Deportes La Serena11 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Nublense12 September 2026

Concepción

Primera División

  • W1-0Palestino2 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Deportes La Serena24 October 2026
  • D1-1Union La Calera11 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Colo Colo13 September 2026

What these results say

  • Everton de Vina scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Everton de Vina conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Everton de Vina had three goals or more.
  • Concepción scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Concepción failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Concepción conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Everton de Vina2711794335+840
8Concepción27115113030038

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Everton de Vina vs Concepción

  • 18 May 2026Concepción 0–2 Everton de VinaPrimera División

Leading scorers: Everton de Vina and Concepción

Everton de Vina

GoalsAssists

  • A. Medina123

Concepción

GoalsAssists

  • J. Larrivey73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Concepción won 2–0 at Everton de Vina. The model had leaned towards a win for Everton de Vina at 45% and given a win for Concepción 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Aldrix Jara 72' for Concepción, Jorge Henríquez 84' for Concepción. On expected goals it finished 0.88–0.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Everton de Vina a 36.3% chance to finish in the top four: 49.2% after a win, 27.0% after a draw, 17.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.7%, 18.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Everton de Vina v Concepción has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Everton de Vina's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Everton de Vina win45%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Concepción win27%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.