26 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K. 1. Lig prediction & result

Mardin
Referee: Hakan Ulker
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Mardin 1969 2-1 Manisa F.K..

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Mardin 1969, 26% draw, 22% Manisa F.K. — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mardin 1969 at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mardin 196997%Draw3%Manisa F.K.0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Mallik Wilks
11'
17'
Ada Ibik
⚽Uğur Adem Gezerassist: Tonio Teklić
18'
24'
•Julien Anziani
26'
⚽Julien Anziani (pen)
⚽Olarenwaju Kayode
44'
🔁Tonio Teklićout: Đorđe Denić
61'
72'
🔁Yassine Benrahouout: Noha Lemina
72'
🔁Jonathan Lindsethout: Alenis Vargas
72'
🔁K. Yurdakulout: Yasin Güreler
🔁Mallik Wilksout: Berkay Dogan
75'
🔁Emre Taşdemirout: Eray Korkmaz
75'
🔁Olarenwaju Kayodeout: Bunyamin Balat
81'

Match stats — Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K.

45%Possession55%
9Shots12
4On target3
4Corners5
1.58xG2.24

Goals against chances

Mardin 19692 from 1.58 xGabout what the chances were worth
Manisa F.K.1 from 2.24 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mardin 1969 4-3-3
  • 1E. KardeşlerG
  • 3N. YardımcıD
  • 25M. ŞengülD
  • 15U. GezerD
  • 33E. TaşdemirD
  • 42B. AlhassanM
  • 16A. KabakM
  • 10Z. DimitrovM
  • 91T. TeklićF
  • 47M. WilksF
  • 9O. KayodeF
Substitutes
  • 70Enes ErolM
  • 64B. DoğanD
  • 8Đ. DenićM
  • 11B. BalatM
  • 29Ö. KahveciG
  • 17E. KorkmazD
  • 77D. TaşkanF
  • 45O. YıldırımF
  • 7Ş. ÇetinM
Coach: Ivaylo Petev
Manisa F.K. 4-1-4-1
  • 1V. KarakuşG
  • 22K. YurdakulD
  • 5C. HérelleD
  • 45Ada IbikD
  • 3O. KaynakD
  • 60B. TouréM
  • 20Y. BenrahouM
  • 6A. ÇankayaM
  • 23J. AnzianiM
  • 10J. LindsethM
  • 9C. SyllaF
Substitutes
  • 27Y. GürelerD
  • 4F. İnalD
  • 17Osman KahramanF
  • 2Yunus Emre KöseD
  • 11N. LeminaM
  • 96B. TibukogluD
  • 70A. VargasF
  • 13Egemen YayliG
  • 25A. SenF
Coach: Nestor El Maestro

Form going into Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K.

Mardin 1969

1. Lig

  • L2-4away to Esenler Erokspor19 October 2026
  • W1-0Fatih Karagümrük15 October 2026

Manisa F.K.

1. Lig

  • L3-4Muğlaspor19 October 2026
  • D1-1Esenler Erokspor15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Mardin 1969147431913+625
17Manisa F.K.143472124-313

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Mardin 1969 and Manisa F.K.

Mardin 1969

GoalsAssists

  • O. Kayode52

Manisa F.K.

GoalsAssists

  • J. Anziani81
  • C. Sylla72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mardin 1969 beat Manisa F.K. 2–1. The model had made a win for Mardin 1969 its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Uğur Adem Gezer 18' for Mardin 1969, Julien Anziani (penalty) 26' for Manisa F.K., Olarenwaju Kayode 44' for Mardin 1969. On expected goals it finished 1.58–2.24.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Manisa F.K. a 29.0% chance to finish in the bottom four: 21.5% after a win, 27.0% after a draw, 32.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.1%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.