25 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

AEL vs Aris 1. Division prediction & result

Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
Referee: Ioannis Christodoulou
Full time1 – 3

Final score: AEL 1-3 Aris.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% AEL, 28% draw, 32% Aris — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AEL at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AEL0%Draw1%Aris99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
⚽Veljko Nikolić
25'
⚽junior rody effaghe
Luther Singh
45+3'
47'
Anderson Correia
60'
🔁dennis gaustadout: Gustavo Pajé
🔁kypros neofytouout: Ivan Milosavljevic
61'
🔁giorgios papageorgiouout: Sergio Conceicao
61'
🔁Tavares jairout: François Régis Mughe
61'
63'
⚽Gustavo Pajé
Joao Tavares
68'
🔁Joao Tavaresout: Chinedu Geoffrey
69'
74'
🔁Gedeon Kaluluout: David Lelle
evagoras antoniou
77'
80'
David Lelle
🔁Luther Singhout: Danil Paroutis
81'
⚽Stevan Jovetić (pen)
89'

Line-ups

AEL
  • 33E. AntoniouD
  • 1S. KapinoG
  • 6D. ZdravkovskiM
  • 80Jair TavaresF
  • 20João TavaresM
  • 11L. SinghF
  • 23Diogo GomesM
  • 30G. PapageorgiouM
  • 10R. OudinF
  • 22K. NeofytouD
  • 9S. JovetićF
Substitutes
  • 75Simonas ChristofiF
  • 99G. ChineduF
  • 2A. KaroD
  • 70kyriacos kyriacouD
  • 98P. KyriakouG
  • 74Samy MerzoukG
  • 19I. MilosavljevićM
  • 77F. MugheF
  • 17D. ParoutisF
Coach: Hugo Martins
Aris
  • 7Anderson CorreiaD
  • 8C. CharalampousM
  • 11R. EffagheF
  • 70C. El AllachiM
  • 29D. GaustadM
  • 24G. KaluluD
  • 17M. MatysikD
  • 22V. NikolićM
  • 6A. OpokuM
  • 20S. YagoD
  • 91M. ZadroG
Substitutes
  • 88C. Fi AkambaM
  • 21D. GalyataM
  • 30Gustavo PajéM
  • 16Oriyomi LebiF
  • 5D. LelleD
  • 3Lazar MarašD
  • 78Denis OvsyannikovF
  • 19Sane mamadouD
  • 18B. SzakosD
Coach: A. Radkov

Form going into AEL vs Aris

AEL

1. Division

  • W2-0away to Omonia Aradippou18 October 2026
  • W2-1Omonia 29is Maiou11 October 2026

Aris

1. Division

  • D1-1AEK Larnaca18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Olympiakos11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3AEL96031414018
7Aris94321313015

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AEL vs Aris

  • 1 February 2026AEL 2–1 Aris1. Division
  • 21 January 2026Aris 0–1 AELCup
  • 19 October 2025Aris 4–0 AEL1. Division
  • 23 February 2025Aris 4–0 AEL1. Division
  • 24 November 2024AEL 0–3 Aris1. Division
  • 18 February 2024Aris 4–0 AEL1. Division

Leading scorers: AEL and Aris

AEL

No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Aris

GoalsAssists

  • R. Effaghe40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Aris won 3–1 at AEL. The model had leaned towards a win for AEL at 40% and given a win for Aris 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Veljko Nikolić 23' for Aris, junior rody effaghe 25' for Aris, Gustavo Pajé 63' for Aris, Stevan Jovetić (penalty) 89' for AEL.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AEL a 61.3% chance to finish in the top six: 70.2% after a win, 57.6% after a draw, 50.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.9%, 10.4 points lower than before the match.

For Aris the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 46.4% going in: 56.3% after a win, 45.1% after a draw, 40.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.3%, 9.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AEL v Aris has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is AEL's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. AEL win40%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Aris win32%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.