25 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Apoel Nicosia vs Omonia 29is Maiou 1. Division prediction & result

GSP Stadium, Nicosia
Referee: Andreas Tehrany
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Apoel Nicosia 4-1 Omonia 29is Maiou.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Apoel Nicosia, 25% draw, 25% Omonia 29is Maiou — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Apoel Nicosia at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Apoel Nicosia99%Draw1%Omonia 29is Maiou0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽Steve Brahim Joshep Omar Ambri
14'
Francis Uzoho
⚽Fabricio Pedrozo (pen)
17'
32'
🔁Juan Portalesout: Anestis Vlachomitros
⚽Anastasios Bakasetas
43'
46'
🔁Konstantinos pattichisout: Domen Črnigoj
46'
🔁Charalambos aristotelousout: Luis·Santos
50'
Fergus Tierney
⚽Marquinhos
56'
61'
Sotiris Fiakas
62'
Luis·Santos
🔁Daniel Manciniout: Stavros Georgiou
68'
68'
🔁Kelechi Nwakaliout: Morais Mike
74'
Sotiris Fiakas
⚽Fabricio Pedrozo
76'
🔁Anastasios Bakasetasout: Gabriel Maioli da Silva
79'
🔁Marquinhosout: Filip Đuričić
79'
80'
🔁Fergus Tierneyout: Dimitris Chantakias
🔁Dimitris Limniosout: Constantinos poursaitides
84'
🔁Antonín Barákout: Facundo Pérez
84'
Angel Garcia Cabezali
90'

Line-ups

Apoel Nicosia
  • 4G. AngelopoulosF
  • 27V. BelecG
  • 15F. PedrozoF
  • 10MarquinhosF
  • 7D. ManciniM
  • 18D. LimniosF
  • 34K. LaifisD
  • 14Ángel GarcíaM
  • 8DálcioM
  • 72A. BarákM
  • 9A. BakasetasM
Substitutes
  • 5M. DegenekM
  • 32I. AvramidisM
  • 31F. ĐuričićM
  • 84M. FilippidisM
  • 11Gabriel MaioliF
  • 70S. GeorgiouF
  • 78S. MichosG
  • 99F. PérezM
  • 21K. PoursaitidisF
Coach: N. Papadopoulos
Omonia 29is Maiou
  • 45Steve AmbriM
  • 14H. AndreouD
  • 8C. AristotelousM
  • 20S. FiakasM
  • 4A. KaiafasD
  • 22K. NwakaliM
  • 15S. PanteliD
  • 16Constantinos PattichisM
  • 19A. PortalesD
  • 11Fergus TierneyM
  • 98F. UzohoG
Substitutes
  • 89D. ČrnigojM
  • 77Luís SantosF
  • 7R. FernandesF
  • 1Nikos GrammatikakisG
  • 43Antonis MavrantonisG
  • 10Mike MoraisF
  • 46M. SotiriouD
  • 5S. TsoukalasM
  • 27A. VlachomitrosF
Coach: N. Tutiç

Form going into Apoel Nicosia vs Omonia 29is Maiou

Apoel Nicosia

1. Division

  • D0-0away to Pafos19 October 2026
  • W2-1Nea Salamis10 October 2026

Omonia 29is Maiou

1. Division

  • W1-0Anorthosis18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to AEL11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Apoel Nicosia95222111+1017
8Omonia 29is Maiou93241517-211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Apoel Nicosia vs Omonia 29is Maiou

  • 16 January 2025Apoel Nicosia 6–1 Omonia 29is MaiouCup
  • 12 January 2025Apoel Nicosia 4–0 Omonia 29is Maiou1. Division
  • 29 September 2024Omonia 29is Maiou 0–0 Apoel Nicosia1. Division

Leading scorers: Apoel Nicosia and Omonia 29is Maiou

Apoel Nicosia

GoalsAssists

  • F. Pedrozo50
  • Marquinhos20
  • K. Stafylidis11

Omonia 29is Maiou

No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Apoel Nicosia beat Omonia 29is Maiou 4–1. The model had made a win for Apoel Nicosia its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Steve Brahim Joshep Omar Ambri 9' for Omonia 29is Maiou, Fabricio Pedrozo (penalty) 17' for Apoel Nicosia, Anastasios Bakasetas 43' for Apoel Nicosia, Marquinhos 56' for Apoel Nicosia, Fabricio Pedrozo 76' for Apoel Nicosia. Sent off: Sotiris Fiakas (Omonia 29is Maiou) 74'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Apoel Nicosia a 62.3% chance to finish in the top six: 68.3% after a win, 58.7% after a draw, 49.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.3%, 6 points higher than before the match.

For Omonia 29is Maiou the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 25.2% going in: 34.2% after a win, 26.8% after a draw, 20.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.4%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Apoel Nicosia v Omonia 29is Maiou has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 51% / 23% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 50% / 25% / 25%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.

  1. Apoel Nicosia win50%▼ −1
  2. Draw25%▲ +2
  3. Omonia 29is Maiou win25%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.