Rizespor vs Trabzonspor Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Rizespor 3-4 Trabzonspor.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Rizespor, 25% draw, 51% Trabzonspor — fair odds of 4.17, 4.00 and 1.96.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Trabzonspor at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rizespor vs Trabzonspor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 75Yahia FofanaG
- 54Mithat PalaD
- 21Siaka BakayokoD
- 93Modibo SagnanD
- 17Zakaria ArissD
- 14Taylan AntalyalıM
- 11Adedire MebudeM
- 10Ibrahim OlawoyinM
- 20Qazim LaciM
- 99Emrecan BulutM
- 29Gennaro BorrelliF
- 7Valentin MihăilăF
- 79Iustin DoicaruF
- 9Ali SoweF
- 70Can BozdoğanM
- 6Moussa DiakitéM
- 30Zafer GörgenG
- 4Attila MocsiD
- 37Taha ŞahinD
- 5Tayyip Talha SanuçD
- 24André OnanaG
- 20Wagner PinaD
- 27Chibuike NwaiwuD
- 15Stefan SavićD
- 19Mustafa EskihellaçD
- 6FabinhoM
- 10Mohamed SalahM
- 57Melih KabasakalM
- 7Ernest MuçiM
- 58Aral ŞimşirM
- 9Franculino DjúF
- 26Tim Jabol-FolcarelliM
- 55Sidny Lopes CabralD
- 11Ozan TufanM
- 70Noah SavioloF
- 39Cenk ÖzkaçarD
- 1Ahmet Doğan YıldırımG
- 4Samet AkaydınD
- 77Metehan MimaroğluF
- 14Umut NayirF
Form going into Rizespor vs Trabzonspor
Rizespor
Süper Lig
- L1-2away to Çorum FK16 October 2026
- L0-3Fenerbahçe10 October 2026
Trabzonspor
Süper Lig
- W2-0Beşiktaş19 October 2026
- W3-0away to Samsunspor10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rizespor | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
| 2 | Trabzonspor | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rizespor vs Trabzonspor
Rizespor and Trabzonspor have met 7 times in the records we hold, Trabzonspor has won 5 of them to Rizespor's 2.
The record
Trabzonspor won the last one 4–3 on 26 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| Trabzonspor | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 25 goals, an average of 3.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Oct 2026
Süper LigRizespor 3–4 Trabzonspor - 14 Mar 2026
Süper LigTrabzonspor 1–0 Rizespor - 18 Oct 2025
Süper LigRizespor 1–2 Trabzonspor - 13 Apr 2025
Süper LigTrabzonspor 2–0 Rizespor - 26 Feb 2025
Türkiye KupasıTrabzonspor 5–2 Rizespor - 9 Nov 2024
Süper LigRizespor 3–1 Trabzonspor - 25 Jan 2024
Süper LigRizespor 1–0 Trabzonspor
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Trabzonspor's attack rates 47% above Rizespor's, and Trabzonspor concede 34% fewer than Rizespor. That gives Trabzonspor the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | 0.76 | 1.33 |
| Trabzonspor | 1.12 | 0.88 |
Leading scorers: Rizespor and Trabzonspor
Rizespor
GoalsAssists
- A. Sowe40
Trabzonspor
GoalsAssists
- Mohamed Salah93
- Franculino Djú42
- E. Muçi36
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Trabzonspor won 4–3 at Rizespor. The model had made a win for Trabzonspor its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: G. Borrelli 12' for Rizespor, G. Borrelli 32' for Rizespor, M. Kabasakal 49' for Trabzonspor, A. Simsir 51' for Trabzonspor, Franculino 57' for Trabzonspor, Q. Laci 68' for Rizespor, Franculino 83' for Trabzonspor. On expected goals it finished 1.81–2.63.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rizespor a 13.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.4% after a win, 12.3% after a draw, 15.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.3%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
For Trabzonspor the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 73.6% going in: 77.2% after a win, 71.3% after a draw, 68.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.2%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.