24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe League One prediction & result

The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London
Full time1 – 1

Final score: AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Wycombe.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% AFC Wimbledon, 26% draw, 46% Wycombe — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Wycombe at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AFC Wimbledon3%Draw92%Wycombe5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jayden Stockley
29'
60'
⚽Fred Onyedinmaassist: Jayden Wareham
61'
🔁Jamie Mullinsout: Silko Thomas
🔁Ollie Harrisonout: Callum Maycock
65'
🔁Harry Cornickout: Steven Sessegnon
65'
Steve Seddon
67'
74'
🔁Cauley Woodrowout: Aaron Morley
🔁Aron Sasuout: H. Hedges
82'
🔁Myles Hippolyteout: Zack Nelson
82'
86'
🔁Josh Scowenout: Luke Leahy
86'
🔁Caolan Boyd-Munceout: Junior Quitirna

Match stats — AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe

34%Possession66%
14Shots15
2On target6
7Corners5
1.57xG1.55

Goals against chances

AFC Wimbledon1 from 1.57 xGless than the chances were worth
Wycombe1 from 1.55 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AFC Wimbledon 5-4-1
  • 39J. BursikG
  • 7J. TilleyD
  • 17A. YiadomD
  • 6R. JohnsonD
  • 3S. SeddonD
  • 29A. SasuD
  • 23H. CornickM
  • 5O. HarrisonM
  • 12A. SmithM
  • 21M. HippolyteM
  • 9J. StockleyF
Substitutes
  • 8C. MaycockM
  • 20J. McDonnellG
  • 10Z. NelsonM
  • 2S. SessegnonD
  • 15F. SimmondsD
  • 22R. HoranD
  • 34H. HedgesM
Coach: J. Jackson
Wycombe 4-2-3-1
  • 23C. HazardG
  • 2J. GrimmerD
  • 26C. TaylorD
  • 45A. HagelskjærD
  • 3D. HarvieD
  • 4J. ScowenM
  • 8C. Boyd-MunceM
  • 44F. OnyedinmaM
  • 21Jamie MullinsM
  • 12C. WoodrowM
  • 15J. WarehamF
Substitutes
  • 33J. WildsmithG
  • 11Silko Amari Otieno ThomasF
  • 7Armando QuitirnaF
  • 5A. MorleyM
  • 10L. LeahyM
  • 27S. CookD
  • 17D. CaseyD
Coach: T. Hounsell

Form going into AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe

AFC Wimbledon

League One

  • L0-3Mansfield Town20 October 2026
  • L0-5away to Sheffield Wednesday17 October 2026

Wycombe

League One

  • D2-2away to Cambridge United20 October 2026
  • W2-0Notts County17 October 2026
  • L1-4Luton10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17AFC Wimbledon144461021-1116
13Wycombe134632123-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe

  • 4 January 2026Wycombe 2–0 AFC WimbledonLeague One
  • 27 September 2025AFC Wimbledon 2–1 WycombeLeague One
  • 20 August 2024AFC Wimbledon 1–0 WycombeEFL Trophy
  • 18 November 2023Wycombe 1–0 AFC WimbledonEFL Trophy
  • 18 April 2022AFC Wimbledon 1–1 WycombeLeague One
  • 11 December 2021Wycombe 2–2 AFC WimbledonLeague One

Leading scorers: AFC Wimbledon and Wycombe

AFC Wimbledon

GoalsAssists

  • J. Stockley61

Wycombe

GoalsAssists

  • J. Wareham61
  • F. Onyedinma43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AFC Wimbledon and Wycombe drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Wycombe at 46% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jayden Stockley 29' for AFC Wimbledon, Fred Onyedinma 60' for Wycombe. On expected goals it finished 1.57–1.55.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AFC Wimbledon a 61.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 54.1% after a win, 61.3% after a draw, 66.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 61.3%.

For Wycombe the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 5.4% going in: 4.0% after a win, 5.2% after a draw, 7.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 5.2%.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 32% / 28% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 28% / 26% / 46%: the biggest move is Wycombe's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. AFC Wimbledon win28%▼ −4
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Wycombe win46%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.