Blackpool vs Mansfield Town League One prediction & result
Final score: Blackpool 1-4 Mansfield Town.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Blackpool, 28% draw, 37% Mansfield Town — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Mansfield Town at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Blackpool vs Mansfield Town
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. Peacock-FarrellG
- 28J. WilliamsD
- 4O. CaseyD
- 3Z. AshworthD
- 21I. NiskanenD
- 8A. MorganM
- 11J. BowlerM
- 17Karoy AndersonM
- 7L. ClarksonM
- 19D. CharlesF
- 18D. TaylorF
- 6J. BrownM
- 14T. BloxhamF
- 2A. LyonsD
- 26Finley MunroeD
- 15H. CoulsonD
- 23L. SouthwoodG
- 12J. YatesF
- 1L. RobertsG
- 4E. HewittD
- 23A. OshilajaD
- 5R. SweeneyD
- 25L. ReedM
- 22N. Moriah-WelshM
- 33G. AbbottM
- 16L. ThompsonM
- 3S. McLaughlinM
- 13J. RussellF
- 14M. SmithF
- 20F. Blake-TracyD
- 8L. BoltonD
- 9J. BoweryD
- 24R. HendryM
- 2K. KnoyleD
- 18R. OatesF
- 19T. RobertsF
Form going into Blackpool vs Mansfield Town
Blackpool
League One
- W2-0Milton Keynes Dons20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Leyton Orient17 October 2026
Mansfield Town
League One
- W3-0away to AFC Wimbledon20 October 2026
- D1-1Oxford United15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Blackpool | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Blackpool vs Mansfield Town
- 17 February 2026Blackpool 1–0 Mansfield TownLeague One
- 19 August 2025Mansfield Town 2–0 BlackpoolLeague One
- 15 February 2025Blackpool 3–3 Mansfield TownLeague One
- 5 October 2024Mansfield Town 2–0 BlackpoolLeague One
- 6 December 2017Blackpool 1–1 Mansfield TownEFL Trophy
- 2 January 2017Blackpool 0–1 Mansfield TownLeague Two
Leading scorers: Blackpool and Mansfield Town
Blackpool
No player in League One's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Mansfield Town
GoalsAssists
- M. Smith62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mansfield Town won 4–1 at Blackpool. The model had made a win for Mansfield Town its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Michael Smith 17' for Mansfield Town, Dion Charles 42' for Blackpool, Rhys Oates 55' for Mansfield Town, Ilmari Niskanen (own goal) 64' for Mansfield Town, Tyler Roberts 78' for Mansfield Town. On expected goals it finished 1.15–1.92.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Blackpool a 16.5% chance to finish in the bottom four: 12.4% after a win, 16.2% after a draw, 19.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.1%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Blackpool v Mansfield Town has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 35% / 28% / 37%: the biggest move is Blackpool's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Blackpool win35%▼ −4
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Mansfield Town win37%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.