Bromley vs Peterborough League One prediction & result
Final score: Bromley 1-1 Peterborough.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Bromley, 26% draw, 43% Peterborough — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Peterborough at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bromley vs Peterborough
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. SmithG
- 12Marcus Lemar IfillD
- 45A. JacksonD
- 21Kamari Antonio GrantD
- 11M. PinnockD
- 10J. JonesM
- 22K. ContehM
- 6G. SavilleM
- 16W. HondermarckM
- 20V. AdeboyejoF
- 9M. CheekF
- 14N. KabambaF
- 31O. MasonG
- 28J. McKiernanM
- 19M. MillerF
- 3R. TaylorD
- 8B. ThompsonM
- 18C. WhitelyM
- 1A. BassG
- 2C. JohnstonD
- 18Lucca MendonçaD
- 6T. O'ConnorD
- 14Harley MillsD
- 4L. KellyM
- 45Harry AshfieldM
- 19Bolu ShofowokeM
- 10Ethan WilliamsM
- 11O. EdwardsM
- 9H. LeonardF
- 33James DornellyD
- 24Declan FirthF
- 8B. KhelaM
- 26D. OkagbueD
- 27D. OrmerodF
- 17Vernon MasaraF
- 23C. Andeng NdiG
Form going into Bromley vs Peterborough
Bromley
League One
- L0-4Leicester20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Stockport County17 October 2026
Peterborough
League One
- L1-4away to Huddersfield20 October 2026
- D2-2Burton Albion17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Leicester10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 33 | -20 | 9 |
| 22 | Peterborough | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bromley vs Peterborough
- 10 November 2018Bromley 1–3 PeterboroughFA Cup
The result against the call
Bromley and Peterborough drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Peterborough at 43% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Michael Cheek 10' for Bromley, Vernon Masara 90+3' for Peterborough. On expected goals it finished 0.74–1.27.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bromley a 84.2% chance to finish in the bottom four: 80.8% after a win, 84.6% after a draw, 86.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 84.6%.
For Peterborough the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 32.7% going in: 27.8% after a win, 34.4% after a draw, 37.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 34.4%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Bromley v Peterborough has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 36% / 26% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 31% / 26% / 43%: the biggest move is Bromley's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Bromley win31%▼ −5
- Draw26%=
- Peterborough win43%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.