24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient League One prediction & result

Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Burton Albion 2-1 Leyton Orient.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Burton Albion, 29% draw, 32% Leyton Orient — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Burton Albion at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Burton Albion97%Draw3%Leyton Orient0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. O’Mahony
32'
33'
⚽Alexander George Henry Gilbert
⚽Kgagelo Chaukeassist: Caylon Vickers
56'
🔁M. O’Mahonyout: Gbemi Arubi
58'
63'
🔁James Morrisout: Phillip Chinedu
64'
🔁Dane Scarlettout: Aaron Connolly
73'
🔁Isaac Haydenout: Armando Dobra
🔁H. Araujoout: Emeka Adeile
77'
80'
🔁Jaze Kabiaout: Oliver O'Neill
⚽Will Collarassist: Caylon Vickers
86'

Match stats — Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient

52%Possession48%
18Shots12
7On target2
9Corners4
1.12xG0.75

Goals against chances

Burton Albion2 from 1.12 xGmore than the chances were worth
Leyton Orient1 from 0.75 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Burton Albion 3-4-2-1
  • 34C. AddaiG
  • 6T. SibbickD
  • 16C. TiltD
  • 20J. SrahaD
  • 17R. Borges RodriguesM
  • 14W. CollarM
  • 4K. ChaukeM
  • 24Harvey AraujoM
  • 18Caylon VickersM
  • 8C. WebsterM
  • 10Mark O’MahonyF
Substitutes
  • 9G. ArubiF
  • 19M. DennisF
  • 32J. KeanG
  • 40Zac ScuttF
  • 23Emeka AdeileD
  • 29Kain AdomF
Coach: G. Bowyer
Leyton Orient 3-4-2-1
  • 1N. BaxterG
  • 2F. StevensD
  • 6W. ForresterD
  • 12A. GilchristD
  • 14I. HaydenM
  • 20A. GilbertM
  • 8I. El MizouniM
  • 3J. MorrisM
  • 25Charlie Gerard Richard WellensM
  • 9J. KabiaM
  • 18D. ScarlettF
Substitutes
  • 27T. SpringettF
  • 13Noah PhillipsG
  • 7O. O'NeillM
  • 17A. DobraF
  • 10A. ConnollyF
  • 34P. ChineduD
  • 22Y. AkhamrichF
Coach: R. Wellens

Form going into Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient

Burton Albion

League One

  • D0-0Bradford20 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Peterborough17 October 2026

Leyton Orient

League One

  • L0-1away to Reading21 October 2026
  • W2-0Blackpool17 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Bradford10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Burton Albion154562027-717
14Leyton Orient135261914+517

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient

  • 2 May 2026Leyton Orient 2–2 Burton AlbionLeague One
  • 29 November 2025Burton Albion 0–4 Leyton OrientLeague One
  • 1 April 2025Burton Albion 2–1 Leyton OrientLeague One
  • 14 December 2024Leyton Orient 0–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
  • 17 February 2024Leyton Orient 1–2 Burton AlbionLeague One
  • 28 October 2023Burton Albion 0–0 Leyton OrientLeague One

Leading scorers: Burton Albion and Leyton Orient

Burton Albion

No player in League One's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Leyton Orient

GoalsAssists

  • J. Kabia42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Burton Albion beat Leyton Orient 2–1. The model had made a win for Burton Albion its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Alexander George Henry Gilbert 33' for Leyton Orient, Kgagelo Chauke 56' for Burton Albion, Will Collar 86' for Burton Albion. On expected goals it finished 1.12–0.75.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Burton Albion a 10.1% chance to finish in the bottom four: 7.9% after a win, 9.7% after a draw, 12.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.9%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.

For Leyton Orient the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 7.2% going in: 5.1% after a win, 7.0% after a draw, 8.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.2%, 1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Burton Albion v Leyton Orient has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Burton Albion's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Burton Albion win39%▼ −3
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Leyton Orient win32%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.