18 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca
Referee: Joel Alarcon
Full time0 – 1

Final score: FC Cajamarca 0-1 UCV Moquegua.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% FC Cajamarca, 25% draw, 21% UCV Moquegua — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Cajamarca at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Cajamarca0%Draw6%UCV Moquegua94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁P. Cejasout: José Reinaldo Lugo Quiñónez
58'
67'
🔁Edgar Lastreout: Allonso Alberto Dávila Cárdenas
72'
🔁Jeferson Collazosout: Brayan Angulo
73'
🔁Nicolas Chavezout: Diego Ramírez
🔁S. Encisoout: Jonathan Betancourt
74'
🔁José Mauricio Arrasco Calderónout: Sebastien Pineau
87'
89'
⚽Brayan Anguloassist: Allonso Alberto Dávila Cárdenas

Match stats — FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua

59%Possession41%
15Shots8
5On target1
4Corners4
0.74xG0.51

Goals against chances

FC Cajamarca0 from 0.74 xGless than the chances were worth
UCV Moquegua1 from 0.51 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
  • 3J. MedinaG
  • 44Carlos Daniel Gómez CcasaniD
  • 21J. VegaD
  • 95Y. VílchezD
  • 4J. SotoD
  • 18Jefferson Gabriel Orejuela IzquierdoM
  • 25P. GoyonecheM
  • 17B. PalaciosM
  • 11M. ArrascoM
  • 31S. EncisoM
  • 9P. CejasF
Substitutes
  • 77J. LugoF
  • 12S. Aspajo CohenG
  • 88H. CamachoM
  • 27J. BetancourtM
  • 13C. CorreaM
  • 14A. GutiérrezD
  • 7S. PineauF
  • 6M. RasmussenF
  • 5R. SuarezD
Coach: C. Ayala
UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1
  • 1C. GradosG
  • 4A. PerlecheD
  • 13J. LojasD
  • 3C. EncisoD
  • 15N. AmasifuénD
  • 25R. ChipaoM
  • 8C. MejíaM
  • 7E. LastreM
  • 10N. ChávezM
  • 17Y. ZapataM
  • 90J. CollazosF
Substitutes
  • 16Allonso Alberto Dávila CárdenasF
  • 11B. AnguloF
  • 20D. RamírezM
  • 29R. FigueroaG
  • 30J. GrandaD
  • 6Jimmy Rangell Jiménez CárdenasD
  • 24A. LecarosF
  • 88Y. LópezD
  • 22E. MontenegroD
Coach: José Soto

Form going into FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua

FC Cajamarca

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to ADT10 October 2026

UCV Moquegua

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Cienciano8 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17FC Cajamarca3387184665-1929
16UCV Moquegua3379172748-2130

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua

  • 25 April 2026UCV Moquegua 2–1 FC CajamarcaPrimera División
  • 2 November 2025FC Cajamarca 2–0 UCV MoqueguaSegunda División
  • 26 October 2025UCV Moquegua 2–1 FC CajamarcaSegunda División
  • 6 September 2025FC Cajamarca 2–1 UCV MoqueguaSegunda División
  • 2 August 2025UCV Moquegua 2–0 FC CajamarcaSegunda División

Leading scorers: FC Cajamarca and UCV Moquegua

FC Cajamarca

GoalsAssists

  • M. Arrasco85
  • B. Palacios84

UCV Moquegua

GoalsAssists

  • E. Lastre85

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

UCV Moquegua won 1–0 at FC Cajamarca. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Cajamarca at 54% and given a win for UCV Moquegua 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: Brayan Angulo 89' for UCV Moquegua. On expected goals it finished 0.74–0.51.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Cajamarca a 26.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.5% after a win, 33.8% after a draw, 52.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.9%, 26.3 points higher than before the match.

For UCV Moquegua the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 84.4% going in: 62.4% after a win, 83.7% after a draw, 94.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.4%, 22 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is FC Cajamarca's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. FC Cajamarca win54%▲ +7
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. UCV Moquegua win21%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.