17 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg Allsvenskan prediction & result

Strawberry Arena, Solna
Referee: Kristoffer Karlsson
Full time2 – 2

Final score: AIK Stockholm 2-2 IFK Goteborg.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% AIK Stockholm, 24% draw, 32% IFK Goteborg — fair odds of 2.27, 4.17 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AIK Stockholm at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AIK Stockholm5%Draw90%IFK Goteborg5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
⚽Nino Žugeljassist: Alexander Simmelhack
⚽Diogo Tomasassist: Wilmer Olofsson
36'
45'
🔁Nino Žugeljout: Kevin Ackermann
🔁Linus Carlstrandout: Sixten Gustafsson
59'
68'
⚽Alexander Simmelhackassist: Felix Eriksson
🔁Taha Ayariout: linus jareteg
71'
🔁Lukas Bergquistout: S. Wilson
71'
⚽axel kouameassist: Johan Hove
75'
82'
🔁Tobias Heintzout: Issaka Seidu
🔁Lucas Assadiout: Yannick Emilio Geiger
86'
🔁Wilmer Olofssonout: Herve Matthys
87'
90+2'
🔁Felix Erikssonout: Emil Carl Olof Fasth
90+6'
Sam Larsson

Match stats — AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg

54%Possession46%
12Shots14
3On target6
3Corners4
2.02xG0.95

Goals against chances

AIK Stockholm2 from 2.02 xGabout what the chances were worth
IFK Goteborg2 from 0.95 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AIK Stockholm 4-3-3
  • 15K. NordfeldtG
  • 2E. EdhD
  • 33D. TomasD
  • 34W. OlofssonD
  • 5L. BergquistD
  • 48A. KouameM
  • 45T. AyariM
  • 18A. AliM
  • 8J. HoveF
  • 9L. CarlstrandF
  • 10L. AssadiF
Substitutes
  • 20S. HausnerD
  • 28L. JäretegM
  • 30K. JoelssonG
  • 16Sixten GustafssonF
  • 3H. MatthysD
  • 43N. StaykovF
  • 17M. ThychosenD
  • 21S. WilsonM
  • 46Yannick GeigerM
Coach: Jose Riveiro
IFK Goteborg 4-2-3-1
  • 12V. AnderssonG
  • 18F. ErikssonD
  • 5J. BagerD
  • 6H. HermannssonD
  • 22Noah TolfD
  • 24O. ManssonM
  • 15D. KruseM
  • 11N. ŽugeljM
  • 8S. LarssonM
  • 14T. HeintzM
  • 7Alexander Illum SimmelhackF
Substitutes
  • 30T. CoimbraF
  • 4K. AckermannM
  • 25E. BishesariG
  • 20G. ErsoyD
  • 26E. FasthM
  • 35N. LundenM
  • 21L. RadakovicM
  • 28I. SeiduD
  • 9M. FengerF
Coach: Joachim Björklund

Form going into AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg

AIK Stockholm

All competitions we cover

  • L5-6IF Brommapojkarna10 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Halmstad20 September 2026
  • D1-1Mjallby AIF16 September 2026
  • L1-4Vasteras SK FK12 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Malmo FF7 September 2026

IFK Goteborg

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Vasteras SK FK9 October 2026
  • W1-0away to IF Brommapojkarna19 September 2026
  • W2-1Halmstad12 September 2026
  • W4-1away to Mjallby AIF7 September 2026
  • W1-0Orgryte IS30 August 2026

What these results say

  • AIK Stockholm did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • AIK Stockholm scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AIK Stockholm conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • IFK Goteborg won every one of these 5 matches.
  • IFK Goteborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8AIK Stockholm2811894649-341
10IFK Goteborg2810993646-1039

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AIK Stockholm vs IFK Goteborg

  • 5 July 2026IFK Goteborg 1–2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 17 August 2025IFK Goteborg 2–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 29 June 2025AIK Stockholm 3–0 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
  • 21 October 2024IFK Goteborg 1–2 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
  • 27 May 2024AIK Stockholm 5–2 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
  • 6 November 2023IFK Goteborg 1–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg

AIK Stockholm

GoalsAssists

  • J. Hove113

IFK Goteborg

GoalsAssists

  • S. Larsson83

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AIK Stockholm and IFK Goteborg drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for AIK Stockholm at 44% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nino Žugelj 27' for IFK Goteborg, Diogo Tomas 36' for AIK Stockholm, Alexander Simmelhack 68' for IFK Goteborg, axel kouame 75' for AIK Stockholm. On expected goals it finished 2.02–0.95.

How the call on AIK Stockholm v IFK Goteborg has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 24% / 32%: the biggest move is the draw, down 3 points.

  1. AIK Stockholm win44%▲ +2
  2. Draw24%▼ −3
  3. IFK Goteborg win32%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.