17 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Buenos Aires
Referee: Dario Herrera, Argentina
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Velez Sarsfield 1-0 Gimnasia Mendoza.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Velez Sarsfield, 29% draw, 25% Gimnasia Mendoza — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Velez Sarsfield at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Velez Sarsfield97%Draw3%Gimnasia Mendoza0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
•Facundo Lencioni
Simón Escobar
32'
45'
🔁Esteban Fernándezout: Nahuel Barboza
58'
Fermin Antonini
Manuel Lanzini
60'
70'
🔁Luciano César Cingolaniout: Blas Armoa Nunez
70'
🔁Matías Vargasout: Santiago Rodríguez
🔁Juan Cruz Policellaout: Thiago Aguirre
79'
🔁Simón Escobarout: Diego Valdés
79'
82'
Luciano Paredes
82'
🔁Fermin Antoniniout: Martín Úbeda
⚽Thiago Silveroassist: Lucas Robertone
85'
85'
Cesar Rigamonti
🔁Manuel Lanziniout: Claudio Baeza
87'
88'
🔁Diego Mondinoout: I. Charparin
Thiago Aguirre
90'
Joaquin Garcia
90+3'
🔁Ronaldo Martinezout: Dilan Godoy
90+4'
🔁Lucas Robertoneout: Luca Feler
90+4'

Match stats — Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza

62%Possession38%
20Shots11
6On target2
12Corners2
1.55xG0.75

Goals against chances

Velez Sarsfield1 from 1.55 xGless than the chances were worth
Gimnasia Mendoza0 from 0.75 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. MarchioriG
  • 4J. GarcíaD
  • 32Thiago SilveorD
  • 16L. MagallánD
  • 3Elías GómezD
  • 29R. AliendroM
  • 8L. RobertoneM
  • 37J. PolicellaM
  • 22M. LanziniM
  • 18S. EscobarM
  • 77R. MartínezF
Substitutes
  • 39T. AguirreF
  • 5C. BaezaM
  • 19L. CristaldoD
  • 48Luca FelerM
  • 15D. GodoyF
  • 21Jano GordonD
  • 46Ulises PiedrabuenaD
  • 30L. PiolaF
  • 23F. SanguinettiG
Coach: Guillermo Barros Schelotto
Gimnasia Mendoza 4-2-3-1
  • 23C. RigamontiG
  • 32L. ParedesD
  • 2D. MondinoD
  • 4E. MuñozD
  • 3M. RecaldeD
  • 21F. AntoniniM
  • 30E. FernándezM
  • 7L. CingolaniM
  • 8M. VargasM
  • 26F. LencioniM
  • 9A. MódicaF
Substitutes
  • 42L. CarreraM
  • 19J. CeballosM
  • 5N. BarbozaM
  • 31L. PetruchiG
  • 11S. RodríguezF
  • 17I. SabatiniF
  • 35V. SimoniF
  • 15U. SánchezM
  • 25M. UbedaD
Coach: D. Franco

Form going into Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza

Velez Sarsfield

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L0-2away to Lanus12 October 2026

Gimnasia Mendoza

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W1-0Newell's Old Boys12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Velez Sarsfield167722517+828
8Gimnasia Mendoza166461817+122

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia Mendoza

  • 3 April 2026Gimnasia Mendoza 3–2 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Velez Sarsfield and Gimnasia Mendoza

Velez Sarsfield

GoalsAssists

  • R. Martínez132

Gimnasia Mendoza

GoalsAssists

  • A. Módica140

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Velez Sarsfield beat Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Velez Sarsfield at 46%. The goal: Thiago Silvero 85' for Velez Sarsfield. On expected goals it finished 1.55–0.75.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Velez Sarsfield a 57.2% chance to finish in the top four: 77.0% after a win, 46.8% after a draw, 27.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.0%, 19.8 points higher than before the match.

For Gimnasia Mendoza the question was the chance to finish in the top four: 52.1% after a win, 25.5% after a draw, 11.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 11.0%.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Velez Sarsfield v Gimnasia Mendoza has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 43% / 30% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Velez Sarsfield's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Velez Sarsfield win46%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Gimnasia Mendoza win25%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.